--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  C:\Users\dudtk\Desktop\research and articles\submit\leader visit and nuclear pursuit\
> data\Leader visits and nuclear pursuit_log.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:   2 Jun 2025, 22:26:04

. do "C:\Users\dudtk\AppData\Local\Temp\STD30f8_000000.tmp"

. 
. * Set working directory * 
. 
. cd "C:\Users\dudtk\Desktop\research and articles\submit\leader visit and nuclear pursuit\data"
C:\Users\dudtk\Desktop\research and articles\submit\leader visit and nuclear pursuit\data

. use "Replication_main.dta"

. // change working directory
. 
end of do-file

. do "C:\Users\dudtk\AppData\Local\Temp\STD30f8_000000.tmp"

. 
. *** Main results ***
. xtset cowcc year

Panel variable: cowcc (unbalanced)
 Time variable: year, 1945 to 2007
         Delta: 1 unit

. 
. ** Table 1: The determinants of superpower leader visit **
. logit vis_us l.us_ally l.conflict l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.nuke_latency l.majorpower l.demo l.np
> t_rati if year<=1991, cluster(cowcc) //Model1

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -840.68673  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -731.29812  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -698.74104  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -697.27652  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -697.27405  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -697.27405  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  4,398
                                                        Wald chi2(8)  = 325.02
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -697.27405                       Pseudo R2     = 0.1706

                                (Std. err. adjusted for 132 clusters in cowcc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      vis_us | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     us_ally |
         L1. |   .9577568   .2831084     3.38   0.001     .4028744    1.512639
             |
    conflict |
         L1. |  -.0338107   .2545615    -0.13   0.894    -.5327421    .4651207
             |
   gdpcap_ln |
         L1. |   .4425569   .1482604     2.98   0.003     .1519719    .7331419
             |
    industry |
         L1. |   1.146141   .2704511     4.24   0.000      .616067    1.676216
             |
nuke_latency |
         L1. |   .5856647    .274506     2.13   0.033     .0476429    1.123687
             |
  majorpower |
         L1. |   .8925149   .2715245     3.29   0.001     .3603367    1.424693
             |
        demo |
         L1. |  -.1001984   .3410959    -0.29   0.769    -.7687341    .5683373
             |
    npt_rati |
         L1. |  -.1022939   .1303383    -0.78   0.433    -.3577523    .1531644
             |
       _cons |  -7.743788   1.188432    -6.52   0.000    -10.07307   -5.414504
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit vis_rus l.soviet_ally l.conflict l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.nuke_latency l.majorpower l.demo
>  l.npt_rati if year<=1991, cluster(cowcc) //Model2

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -596.27634  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -503.21712  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -433.94137  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -431.51183  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -431.49925  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -431.49925  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  4,398
                                                        Wald chi2(8)  = 130.80
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -431.49925                       Pseudo R2     = 0.2763

                                (Std. err. adjusted for 132 clusters in cowcc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
     vis_rus | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 soviet_ally |
         L1. |   2.945303   .3971821     7.42   0.000     2.166841    3.723766
             |
    conflict |
         L1. |  -.8063781   .5607105    -1.44   0.150     -1.90535    .2925943
             |
   gdpcap_ln |
         L1. |   .3800679   .3036821     1.25   0.211    -.2151381    .9752739
             |
    industry |
         L1. |   .8229163   .4213126     1.95   0.051    -.0028412    1.648674
             |
nuke_latency |
         L1. |   .8976976   .5341993     1.68   0.093    -.1493138    1.944709
             |
  majorpower |
         L1. |   .8728938    .457927     1.91   0.057    -.0246266    1.770414
             |
        demo |
         L1. |   -.464009   .4723679    -0.98   0.326    -1.389833    .4618151
             |
    npt_rati |
         L1. |  -.9812481   .2401033    -4.09   0.000    -1.451842   -.5106542
             |
       _cons |  -7.260881   2.372065    -3.06   0.002    -11.91004   -2.611719
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ** Table 3: The effect of superpower leader visit on nuclear pursuit **
. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.vis_rus l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.c
> onflict l.npt_rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if year<=1991, cluster(cowcc) //
> Model1

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.04063  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -464.60291  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -348.89402  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -313.04221  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -300.26306  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -290.8127  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -290.29279  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -290.2866  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -290.28659  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  4,263
                                                        Wald chi2(15) = 444.08
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -290.28659                       Pseudo R2     = 0.6507

                                 (Std. err. adjusted for 131 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |  -1.360225    .510802    -2.66   0.008    -2.361379   -.3590714
              |
      vis_rus |
          L1. |  -.3037873   .5226966    -0.58   0.561    -1.328254    .7206792
              |
     nukeally |
          L1. |  -.2816264   .3912123    -0.72   0.472    -1.048388    .4851356
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |    .506426   .2793416     1.81   0.070    -.0410733    1.053925
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   .9812013   .5965018     1.64   0.100    -.1879206    2.150323
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -.6044496   .4818387    -1.25   0.210    -1.548836    .3399369
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |    3.51761   .7207205     4.88   0.000     2.105024    4.930197
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   1.622047   .4092601     3.96   0.000     .8199116    2.424182
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -.7411293   .4728836    -1.57   0.117    -1.667964    .1857056
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0188972   .0092816     2.04   0.042     .0007055    .0370889
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   .7594513   .3067181     2.48   0.013      .158295    1.360608
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   .5040623   .6390487     0.79   0.430    -.7484501    1.756575
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.404515    .179953    -7.80   0.000    -1.757216   -1.051814
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0751924    .011975     6.28   0.000     .0517218     .098663
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0011741   .0002217    -5.30   0.000    -.0016087   -.0007396
              |
        _cons |    -3.6938    1.82936    -2.02   0.043     -7.27928   -.1083198
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 1 failure and 0 successes completely determined.

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.vis_rus l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.c
> onflict l.npt_rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if l.conflict==1 & year<=1991, c
> luster(cowcc) //Model2 

note: L.conflict omitted because of collinearity.
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -409.26951  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -261.87636  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -184.07495  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -161.9705  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -160.53033  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -160.43618  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -160.43587  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -160.43587  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  1,278
                                                        Wald chi2(14) = 638.03
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -160.43587                       Pseudo R2     = 0.6080

                                  (Std. err. adjusted for 47 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |  -1.009233   .3874122    -2.61   0.009    -1.768547   -.2499195
              |
      vis_rus |
          L1. |   1.329181   .5503598     2.42   0.016     .2504957    2.407866
              |
     nukeally |
          L1. |   .1836401   .5484548     0.33   0.738    -.8913115    1.258592
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |   .0151248   .3279016     0.05   0.963    -.6275506    .6578002
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   .5394567   .6984958     0.77   0.440    -.8295699    1.908483
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -.2754953   .7038398    -0.39   0.695    -1.654996    1.104005
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   3.197272   .8803734     3.63   0.000     1.471772    4.922773
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |          0  (omitted)
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -1.195241   .7396415    -1.62   0.106    -2.644912    .2544294
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0238571   .0108146     2.21   0.027     .0026608    .0450533
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   .4867088   .4206817     1.16   0.247    -.3378122     1.31123
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   .7661577    .624403     1.23   0.220    -.4576497    1.989965
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.213613   .2115549    -5.74   0.000    -1.628253   -.7989728
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |    .065006   .0147533     4.41   0.000     .0360899     .093922
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0010284   .0002759    -3.73   0.000    -.0015692   -.0004875
              |
        _cons |   1.275732   2.027785     0.63   0.529    -2.698653    5.250117
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.vis_rus l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.c
> onflict l.npt_rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 i.year if year<=1991, cluster(co
> wcc) //Model3

note: 1991.year omitted because of collinearity.
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.04063  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -468.22201  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -330.7496  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -279.87075  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -270.77109  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -269.17373  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -269.13712  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -269.13709  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -269.13709  

Logistic regression                                    Number of obs =   4,263
                                                       Wald chi2(54) = 7623.25
                                                       Prob > chi2   =  0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -269.13709                      Pseudo R2     =  0.6761

                                 (Std. err. adjusted for 131 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |  -1.182004   .4543142    -2.60   0.009    -2.072443   -.2915643
              |
      vis_rus |
          L1. |  -.4749232   .4035363    -1.18   0.239     -1.26584    .3159934
              |
     nukeally |
          L1. |  -.2576007   .4783903    -0.54   0.590    -1.195228    .6800271
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |   .4275814   .3061686     1.40   0.163     -.172498    1.027661
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   .8675584   .6748644     1.29   0.199    -.4551515    2.190268
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -.6937168   .5218941    -1.33   0.184    -1.716611    .3291769
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   3.795617   1.264159     3.00   0.003      1.31791    6.273324
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   1.586891    .486236     3.26   0.001     .6338854    2.539896
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |   -.872837   .5252528    -1.66   0.097    -1.902313    .1566395
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0079201   .0221954     0.36   0.721    -.0355821    .0514223
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   1.064241   .3394888     3.13   0.002     .3988547    1.729626
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   .5978999   .6497257     0.92   0.357    -.6755392    1.871339
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.574039   .1982385    -7.94   0.000    -1.962579   -1.185498
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0844705   .0124639     6.78   0.000     .0600418    .1088993
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0013112   .0002106    -6.23   0.000     -.001724   -.0008984
              |
         year |
        1952  |  -.1493766   .4485946    -0.33   0.739    -1.028606    .7298526
        1953  |   1.378471   1.296085     1.06   0.288     -1.16181    3.918752
        1954  |    2.68234   1.530989     1.75   0.080    -.3183439    5.683023
        1955  |   2.229497   1.706704     1.31   0.191    -1.115582    5.574576
        1956  |    1.15857   1.575461     0.74   0.462    -1.929277    4.246418
        1957  |   .1678271   1.388676     0.12   0.904    -2.553927    2.889581
        1958  |    .935373   1.445194     0.65   0.517    -1.897155    3.767901
        1959  |   1.727283   1.381299     1.25   0.211    -.9800131    4.434579
        1960  |   2.073596    1.36682     1.52   0.129    -.6053221    4.752513
        1961  |   .1585145   1.334453     0.12   0.905    -2.456965    2.773994
        1962  |    .675109   1.271116     0.53   0.595    -1.816232     3.16645
        1963  |   .1251119   1.426356     0.09   0.930    -2.670495    2.920719
        1964  |   .7757212   1.509972     0.51   0.607     -2.18377    3.735212
        1965  |   .9903517   1.504221     0.66   0.510    -1.957868    3.938571
        1966  |  -1.170837   1.408502    -0.83   0.406    -3.931449    1.589775
        1967  |   .2813426   1.819037     0.15   0.877    -3.283905     3.84659
        1968  |   1.267779   1.834909     0.69   0.490    -2.328576    4.864134
        1969  |   .6265286   1.412252     0.44   0.657    -2.141435    3.394492
        1970  |   .9008565   2.290528     0.39   0.694    -3.588496    5.390209
        1971  |   2.175132   1.318956     1.65   0.099    -.4099754    4.760239
        1972  |   1.896139   1.131977     1.68   0.094     -.322494    4.114773
        1973  |   2.135109   .9672257     2.21   0.027     .2393813    4.030836
        1974  |   2.111553   .8236393     2.56   0.010     .4972499    3.725857
        1975  |   1.577564   .7163064     2.20   0.028     .1736295    2.981499
        1976  |   .6282715   .7165969     0.88   0.381    -.7762325    2.032776
        1977  |  -.1335921   .7138353    -0.19   0.852    -1.532684    1.265499
        1978  |   1.529868   1.125021     1.36   0.174    -.6751325    3.734869
        1979  |   1.364048   1.236513     1.10   0.270    -1.059474     3.78757
        1980  |   .8841001   .9595751     0.92   0.357    -.9966325    2.764833
        1981  |   1.720805   1.071189     1.61   0.108    -.3786861    3.820297
        1982  |   2.885763    1.03304     2.79   0.005     .8610419    4.910484
        1983  |   2.734746    .829067     3.30   0.001     1.109805    4.359687
        1984  |   2.720004   .7883815     3.45   0.001     1.174805    4.265203
        1985  |   2.550926   .7830666     3.26   0.001     1.016143    4.085708
        1986  |   2.292613   .8149416     2.81   0.005     .6953566    3.889869
        1987  |   2.388301   .8380149     2.85   0.004      .745822     4.03078
        1988  |    1.73403    .990279     1.75   0.080    -.2068814    3.674941
        1989  |   1.675874   .9202422     1.82   0.069    -.1277679    3.479515
        1990  |   1.307548   .7067026     1.85   0.064    -.0775639    2.692659
        1991  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -3.581287   2.178179    -1.64   0.100    -7.850438    .6878651
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 36 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. relogit nukepursue_JG l_vis_us l_vis_rus l_nukeally l_gdpcap_ln l_industry l_demo l_majorpower l
> _conflict l_npt_rati l_npt_eff l_nca l_senstech l_JG1 l_JG2 l_JG3 if year<=1991, cluster(cowcc) 
> //Model4
(4,230 missing values generated)


Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs =     4263

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
nukepursue~G | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    l_vis_us |  -1.303491   .5088856    -2.56   0.010    -2.300888    -.306093
   l_vis_rus |  -.2959449   .5207397    -0.57   0.570    -1.316576    .7246862
  l_nukeally |  -.2818054   .3897459    -0.72   0.470    -1.045693    .4820825
 l_gdpcap_ln |   .5067369    .278295     1.82   0.069    -.0387113    1.052185
  l_industry |   .9620137   .5942665     1.62   0.105    -.2027272    2.126755
      l_demo |  -.5959265   .4800327    -1.24   0.214    -1.536773    .3449204
l_majorpower |   3.388049   .7180179     4.72   0.000      1.98076    4.795338
  l_conflict |   1.583273   .4077258     3.88   0.000     .7841455    2.382401
  l_npt_rati |  -.7190878   .4711098    -1.53   0.127    -1.642446    .2042705
   l_npt_eff |   .0182735   .0092469     1.98   0.048     .0001499    .0363971
       l_nca |   .7388856    .305568     2.42   0.016     .1399833    1.337788
  l_senstech |   .4998895   .6366531     0.79   0.432    -.7479277    1.747707
       l_JG1 |   -1.35226   .1792751    -7.54   0.000    -1.703632   -1.000887
       l_JG2 |    .071971   .0119296     6.03   0.000     .0485894    .0953525
       l_JG3 |  -.0011171   .0002209    -5.06   0.000      -.00155   -.0006842
       _cons |  -3.738025   1.822509    -2.05   0.040    -7.310076   -.1659733
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ** Table 4: The effect of US leader visit on alliance status **
. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.conflict l.npt_rati l.
> npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if l.us_ally==1 & year<=1991, cluster(cowcc) //Model1

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -215.57299  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -145.79401  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -141.5001  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -115.05315  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -106.69832  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -92.577875  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -65.177209  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -56.664455  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -54.468855  
Iteration 9:   log pseudolikelihood = -54.316124  
Iteration 10:  log pseudolikelihood =  -54.31544  
Iteration 11:  log pseudolikelihood =  -54.31544  

Logistic regression                                    Number of obs =   1,492
                                                       Wald chi2(13) = 3083.73
                                                       Prob > chi2   =  0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -54.31544                       Pseudo R2     =  0.7480

                                  (Std. err. adjusted for 42 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |  -1.644399   1.369685    -1.20   0.230    -4.328933    1.040135
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |  -1.082838   .8516643    -1.27   0.204     -2.75207    .5863932
              |
     industry |
          L1. |    .833017   1.635312     0.51   0.610    -2.372137    4.038171
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -2.743485   .7395619    -3.71   0.000       -4.193   -1.293971
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   6.310639   1.330298     4.74   0.000     3.703302    8.917976
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   2.100392   .7242725     2.90   0.004     .6808443     3.51994
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -5.511979   1.626439    -3.39   0.001    -8.699741   -2.324217
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0568857   .0238642     2.38   0.017     .0101127    .1036586
              |
          nca |
          L1. |  -.3008511    .258262    -1.16   0.244    -.8070353     .205333
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |  -.5015427   .8233482    -0.61   0.542    -2.115276     1.11219
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.793438   .3161641    -5.67   0.000    -2.413108   -1.173767
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0968767   .0199202     4.86   0.000     .0578339    .1359196
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0015385   .0003871    -3.97   0.000    -.0022972   -.0007799
              |
        _cons |   10.86264     7.4181     1.46   0.143    -3.676566    25.40185
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 126 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.conflict l.npt_rati l.
> npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if l.us_ally==0 & year<=1991, cluster(cowcc) //Model2

note: L.majorpower omitted because of collinearity.
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -608.77988  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -319.94948  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -224.09078  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -210.89631  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -210.27168  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -210.26579  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -210.26579  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  2,771
                                                        Wald chi2(12) = 242.66
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -210.26579                       Pseudo R2     = 0.6546

                                 (Std. err. adjusted for 102 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |  -1.669148   .4387613    -3.80   0.000    -2.529104   -.8091914
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |   .6008076   .2798019     2.15   0.032     .0524059    1.149209
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   .8695552   .6509738     1.34   0.182    -.4063301    2.145441
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -.2715968   .5126132    -0.53   0.596      -1.2763    .7331067
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |          0  (omitted)
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   1.869648   .4986758     3.75   0.000     .8922616    2.847035
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -.0393336   .5519717    -0.07   0.943    -1.121178    1.042511
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |    .015968   .0115342     1.38   0.166    -.0066386    .0385747
              |
          nca |
          L1. |     1.0682   .3861417     2.77   0.006      .311376    1.825024
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   .3766977   .5727187     0.66   0.511    -.7458104    1.499206
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.348708   .2208855    -6.11   0.000    -1.781635   -.9157799
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0694264    .014326     4.85   0.000      .041348    .0975049
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0010613   .0002603    -4.08   0.000    -.0015715   -.0005512
              |
        _cons |  -4.791019    1.78727    -2.68   0.007    -8.294003   -1.288034
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_rus l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.conflict l.npt_rati l
> .npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if l.soviet_ally==1 & year<=1991, cluster(cowcc) //M
> odel3

note: L.industry != 1 predicts failure perfectly;
      L.industry omitted and 182 obs not used.

note: L.senstech omitted because of collinearity.
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -69.853719  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -30.964095  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -23.282589  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -17.878512  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -16.273125  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -15.987975  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -15.956697  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -15.950498  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -15.949183  
Iteration 9:   log pseudolikelihood = -15.948876  
Iteration 10:  log pseudolikelihood = -15.948805  
Iteration 11:  log pseudolikelihood =  -15.94879  
Iteration 12:  log pseudolikelihood = -15.948787  
Iteration 13:  log pseudolikelihood = -15.948787  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =    188
                                                        Wald chi2(7)  =      .
                                                        Prob > chi2   =      .
Log pseudolikelihood = -15.948787                       Pseudo R2     = 0.7717

                                  (Std. err. adjusted for 10 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      vis_rus |
          L1. |   .2192981   .5976284     0.37   0.714     -.952032    1.390628
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |  -9.630618   4.227754    -2.28   0.023    -17.91686   -1.344373
              |
     industry |
          L1. |          0  (omitted)
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -12.23357   1.962331    -6.23   0.000    -16.07967   -8.387474
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   36.20808   1.924218    18.82   0.000     32.43668    39.97948
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   1.454519   .7141161     2.04   0.042     .0548772    2.854161
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |   18.33535   8.582003     2.14   0.033     1.514936    35.15577
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0196566   .1562923     0.13   0.900    -.2866706    .3259838
              |
          nca |
          L1. |  -2.125326    1.03155    -2.06   0.039    -4.147127   -.1035246
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |          0  (omitted)
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.322292   1.437158    -0.92   0.358     -4.13907    1.494485
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0444324   .0552704     0.80   0.421    -.0638957    .1527604
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0003797   .0005193    -0.73   0.465    -.0013974     .000638
              |
        _cons |   65.53146   41.38985     1.58   0.113    -15.59115    146.6541
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 57 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_rus l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.conflict l.npt_rati l
> .npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if l.soviet_ally==0 & year<=1991, cluster(cowcc) //M
> odel4

note: L.majorpower != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      L.majorpower omitted and 3 obs not used.

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -734.98713  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -421.46077  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -295.93373  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -262.37067  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -257.18544  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -256.23002  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -256.21477  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -256.21477  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  3,890
                                                        Wald chi2(12) = 298.06
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -256.21477                       Pseudo R2     = 0.6514

                                 (Std. err. adjusted for 122 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      vis_rus |
          L1. |  -.0047443   .6996552    -0.01   0.995    -1.376043    1.366555
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |   .6575602   .3003696     2.19   0.029     .0688466    1.246274
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   .5467166   .5998974     0.91   0.362    -.6290608    1.722494
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -.5224878   .5133723    -1.02   0.309    -1.528679    .4837034
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |          0  (omitted)
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   1.626973   .4297901     3.79   0.000     .7845996    2.469346
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -.8940667    .519595    -1.72   0.085    -1.912454    .1243208
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0191323   .0091194     2.10   0.036     .0012587    .0370059
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   .7910973   .3247934     2.44   0.015     .1545139    1.427681
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   .3926267    .653432     0.60   0.548    -.8880764     1.67333
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.530553   .2284353    -6.70   0.000    -1.978277   -1.082828
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0885195   .0175925     5.03   0.000     .0540388    .1230002
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0015067   .0003711    -4.06   0.000    -.0022342   -.0007793
              |
        _cons |  -4.745225   1.984226    -2.39   0.017    -8.634236   -.8562135
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 146 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. 
. 
. *** Appendices *** 
. 
. ** Appendix 1: Descriptive statistics **
. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.vis_rus l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.c
> onflict l.npt_rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if year<=1991, cluster(cowcc) //
> Model1

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.04063  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -464.60291  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -348.89402  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -313.04221  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -300.26306  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -290.8127  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -290.29279  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -290.2866  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -290.28659  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  4,263
                                                        Wald chi2(15) = 444.08
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -290.28659                       Pseudo R2     = 0.6507

                                 (Std. err. adjusted for 131 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |  -1.360225    .510802    -2.66   0.008    -2.361379   -.3590714
              |
      vis_rus |
          L1. |  -.3037873   .5226966    -0.58   0.561    -1.328254    .7206792
              |
     nukeally |
          L1. |  -.2816264   .3912123    -0.72   0.472    -1.048388    .4851356
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |    .506426   .2793416     1.81   0.070    -.0410733    1.053925
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   .9812013   .5965018     1.64   0.100    -.1879206    2.150323
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -.6044496   .4818387    -1.25   0.210    -1.548836    .3399369
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |    3.51761   .7207205     4.88   0.000     2.105024    4.930197
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   1.622047   .4092601     3.96   0.000     .8199116    2.424182
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -.7411293   .4728836    -1.57   0.117    -1.667964    .1857056
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0188972   .0092816     2.04   0.042     .0007055    .0370889
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   .7594513   .3067181     2.48   0.013      .158295    1.360608
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   .5040623   .6390487     0.79   0.430    -.7484501    1.756575
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.404515    .179953    -7.80   0.000    -1.757216   -1.051814
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0751924    .011975     6.28   0.000     .0517218     .098663
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0011741   .0002217    -5.30   0.000    -.0016087   -.0007396
              |
        _cons |    -3.6938    1.82936    -2.02   0.043     -7.27928   -.1083198
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 1 failure and 0 successes completely determined.

. 
. sum if e(sample)==1

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     country |          0
       cowcc |      4,263    439.3197    248.5725         20        950
        year |      4,263    1973.107    11.20516       1951       1991
nukepursue~G |      4,263    .0487919     .215458          0          1
      vis_us |      4,262    .0424683    .2016787          0          1
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     vis_rus |      4,262    .0283904     .166105          0          1
    nukeally |      4,263    .5003519    .5000585          0          1
   gdpcap_ln |      4,263    8.053526    .9665266   5.937536   10.38983
    industry |      4,263     .228243    .4197493          0          1
        demo |      4,255    .2834313    .4507169          0          1
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
  majorpower |      4,263    .0025803    .0507374          0          1
    conflict |      4,263    .3028384    .4595398          0          1
    npt_rati |      4,263    .4567206    .4981818          0          1
     npt_eff |      4,263    42.60563     33.7815          0   83.83234
         nca |      4,263    .1857847    .3889784          0          1
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
    senstech |      4,263    .0265072    .1606567          0          1
     us_ally |      4,263    .3518649    .4776081          0          1
 soviet_ally |      4,263    .0870279     .281909          0          1
nuke_latency |      4,263    .0445696     .206381          0          1
nukepursue~W |      4,263    .0417546    .2000514          0          1
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
vis_us_smith |      4,263    .0401126    .1962463          0          1
nukepursue~g |      4,263    .0448041    .2068979          0          1
nukepursue~t |      4,263    .0039878    .0630304          0          1
       usnuc |      4,230    .0690307    .2535364          0          1
     rivalry |      4,263    .3220737    .4673258          0          1
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
npt_rati_e~d |      4,263    .4567206    .4981818          0          1
npt_eff_ex~d |      4,263    42.60563     33.7815          0   83.83234
         JG1 |      4,263    20.47244    12.05831          1         46
         JG2 |      4,263    564.4893    555.1533          1       2116
         JG3 |      4,263    17997.72    23797.25          1      97336
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
         SW1 |      4,263    20.74126     11.9979          1         46
         SW2 |      4,263    574.1159    557.4161          1       2116
         SW3 |      4,263    18352.15    23959.67          1      97336
         OS1 |      4,263    20.98663    11.65212          1         46
         OS2 |      4,263    576.1787    552.8048          1       2116
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
         OS3 |      4,263    18326.32     23848.1          1      97336
    l_vis_us |      4,263    .0405817    .1973424          0          1
   l_vis_rus |      4,263      .02768    .1640737          0          1
  l_nukeally |      4,263     .499179     .500058          0          1
 l_gdpcap_ln |      4,263    8.035822    .9606724   5.899898   10.35977
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
  l_industry |      4,263    .2183908    .4132025          0          1
      l_demo |      4,263    .2793807    .4487476          0          1
l_majorpower |      4,263    .0023458    .0483819          0          1
  l_conflict |      4,263    .2997889    .4582191          0          1
  l_npt_rati |      4,263    .4313863    .4953279          0          1
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
   l_npt_eff |      4,263    40.48171    33.84866          0   83.83234
       l_nca |      4,263    .1825006    .3863019          0          1
  l_senstech |      4,263     .024396    .1542932          0          1
   l_us_ally |      4,263    .3499883    .4770219          0          1
l_soviet_a~y |      4,263    .0867933     .281565          0          1
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
l_nuke_lat~y |      4,263    .0419892     .200588          0          1
l_vis_us_s~h |      4,263     .038236     .191788          0          1
     l_usnuc |      4,206    .0682359    .2521802          0          1
   l_rivalry |      4,263    .3232465    .4677708          0          1
l_npt_rati~d |      4,263    .4313863    .4953279          0          1
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
l_npt_eff_~d |      4,263    40.48171    33.84866          0   83.83234
       l_JG1 |      4,263    19.60521    11.94109          1         45
       l_JG2 |      4,263    526.9202    531.5334          1       2025
       l_JG3 |      4,263    16431.54    22190.97          1      91125
       l_SW1 |      4,263    19.86348    11.89677          1         45
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
       l_SW2 |      4,263    536.0577    534.1025          1       2025
       l_SW3 |      4,263    16763.76    22357.23          1      91125
       l_OS1 |      4,263    20.07999     11.5972          1         45
       l_OS2 |      4,263    537.6695    529.8185          1       2025
       l_OS3 |      4,263    16730.92    22245.46          1      91125

. 
. 
. ** Appendix 2: The effect of superpower leader visit on nuclear pursuit (Country fixed effect) *
> *
. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.vis_rus l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.c
> onflict l.npt_rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 i.cowcc if year<=1991, cluster(c
> owcc) 

note: 20.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      20.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 40.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      40.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 41.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      41.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 42.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      42.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 51.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      51.cowcc omitted and 29 obs not used.

note: 52.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      52.cowcc omitted and 29 obs not used.

note: 70.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      70.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 90.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      90.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 91.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      91.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 92.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      92.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 93.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      93.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 94.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      94.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 95.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      95.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 100.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      100.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 101.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      101.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 110.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      110.cowcc omitted and 25 obs not used.

note: 130.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      130.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 135.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      135.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 145.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      145.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 150.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      150.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 155.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      155.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 165.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      165.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 200.cowcc != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      200.cowcc omitted and 1 obs not used.

note: 205.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      205.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 210.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      210.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 211.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      211.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 225.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      225.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 230.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      230.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 235.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      235.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 260.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      260.cowcc omitted and 35 obs not used.

note: 265.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      265.cowcc omitted and 35 obs not used.

note: 290.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      290.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 305.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      305.cowcc omitted and 36 obs not used.

note: 310.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      310.cowcc omitted and 40 obs not used.

note: 315.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      315.cowcc omitted and 40 obs not used.

note: 325.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      325.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 339.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      339.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 350.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      350.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 352.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      352.cowcc omitted and 31 obs not used.

note: 355.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      355.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 375.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      375.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 385.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      385.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 390.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      390.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 404.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      404.cowcc omitted and 17 obs not used.

note: 420.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      420.cowcc omitted and 17 obs not used.

note: 432.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      432.cowcc omitted and 31 obs not used.

note: 433.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      433.cowcc omitted and 31 obs not used.

note: 434.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      434.cowcc omitted and 31 obs not used.

note: 435.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      435.cowcc omitted and 31 obs not used.

note: 436.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      436.cowcc omitted and 31 obs not used.

note: 437.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      437.cowcc omitted and 31 obs not used.

note: 438.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      438.cowcc omitted and 32 obs not used.

note: 439.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      439.cowcc omitted and 31 obs not used.

note: 450.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      450.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 451.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      451.cowcc omitted and 30 obs not used.

note: 452.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      452.cowcc omitted and 31 obs not used.

note: 461.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      461.cowcc omitted and 31 obs not used.

note: 471.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      471.cowcc omitted and 31 obs not used.

note: 475.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      475.cowcc omitted and 31 obs not used.

note: 481.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      481.cowcc omitted and 21 obs not used.

note: 482.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      482.cowcc omitted and 31 obs not used.

note: 483.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      483.cowcc omitted and 31 obs not used.

note: 484.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      484.cowcc omitted and 31 obs not used.

note: 490.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      490.cowcc omitted and 31 obs not used.

note: 500.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      500.cowcc omitted and 28 obs not used.

note: 501.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      501.cowcc omitted and 28 obs not used.

note: 510.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      510.cowcc omitted and 30 obs not used.

note: 516.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      516.cowcc omitted and 28 obs not used.

note: 517.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      517.cowcc omitted and 29 obs not used.

note: 520.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      520.cowcc omitted and 31 obs not used.

note: 522.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      522.cowcc omitted and 1 obs not used.

note: 530.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      530.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 540.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      540.cowcc omitted and 16 obs not used.

note: 541.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      541.cowcc omitted and 16 obs not used.

note: 551.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      551.cowcc omitted and 27 obs not used.

note: 552.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      552.cowcc omitted and 11 obs not used.

note: 553.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      553.cowcc omitted and 27 obs not used.

note: 565.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      565.cowcc omitted and 1 obs not used.

note: 570.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      570.cowcc omitted and 25 obs not used.

note: 571.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      571.cowcc omitted and 25 obs not used.

note: 572.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      572.cowcc omitted and 14 obs not used.

note: 581.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      581.cowcc omitted and 2 obs not used.

note: 590.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      590.cowcc omitted and 23 obs not used.

note: 600.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      600.cowcc omitted and 35 obs not used.

note: 615.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      615.cowcc omitted and 29 obs not used.

note: 616.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      616.cowcc omitted and 30 obs not used.

note: 625.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      625.cowcc omitted and 35 obs not used.

note: 640.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      640.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 651.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      651.cowcc omitted and 40 obs not used.

note: 652.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      652.cowcc omitted and 30 obs not used.

note: 660.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      660.cowcc omitted and 40 obs not used.

note: 663.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      663.cowcc omitted and 37 obs not used.

note: 670.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      670.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 690.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      690.cowcc omitted and 24 obs not used.

note: 692.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      692.cowcc omitted and 1 obs not used.

note: 698.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      698.cowcc omitted and 20 obs not used.

note: 700.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      700.cowcc omitted and 31 obs not used.

note: 712.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      712.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 740.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      740.cowcc omitted and 39 obs not used.

note: 760.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      760.cowcc omitted and 20 obs not used.

note: 770.cowcc != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      770.cowcc omitted and 14 obs not used.

note: 771.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      771.cowcc omitted and 19 obs not used.

note: 775.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      775.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 780.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      780.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 790.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      790.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 800.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      800.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 811.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      811.cowcc omitted and 27 obs not used.

note: 812.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      812.cowcc omitted and 37 obs not used.

note: 820.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      820.cowcc omitted and 34 obs not used.

note: 830.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      830.cowcc omitted and 26 obs not used.

note: 840.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      840.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 850.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      850.cowcc omitted and 31 obs not used.

note: 900.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      900.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 910.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      910.cowcc omitted and 16 obs not used.

note: 920.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      920.cowcc omitted and 41 obs not used.

note: 950.cowcc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      950.cowcc omitted and 21 obs not used.

note: 220.cowcc omitted because of collinearity.
note: 750.cowcc omitted because of collinearity.
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -350.70104  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -166.10319  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -148.33331  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -145.45107  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -145.38483  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -145.3848  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -145.3848  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =    537
                                                        Wald chi2(13) =      .
                                                        Prob > chi2   =      .
Log pseudolikelihood = -145.3848                        Pseudo R2     = 0.5854

                                  (Std. err. adjusted for 15 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |  -1.251373   .6786365    -1.84   0.065    -2.581476    .0787305
              |
      vis_rus |
          L1. |  -1.206197   1.094421    -1.10   0.270    -3.351222    .9388288
              |
     nukeally |
          L1. |   .7626647   .5217118     1.46   0.144    -.2598717    1.785201
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |  -1.127413   .7557604    -1.49   0.136    -2.608676    .3538503
              |
     industry |
          L1. |    .008834   .8617174     0.01   0.992    -1.680101    1.697769
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -.7595273    .607136    -1.25   0.211    -1.949492    .4304375
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   5.361552   1.805295     2.97   0.003     1.823239    8.899865
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   2.002383   .9579537     2.09   0.037     .1248279    3.879937
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -4.215049   1.451781    -2.90   0.004    -7.060487    -1.36961
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0842586   .0250705     3.36   0.001     .0351213    .1333959
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   .4106645   .3989914     1.03   0.303    -.3713444    1.192673
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   .1872449   1.390023     0.13   0.893    -2.537151     2.91164
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.183479   .2352498    -5.03   0.000     -1.64456   -.7223981
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0632593   .0171499     3.69   0.000     .0296461    .0968726
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0008867   .0003369    -2.63   0.008    -.0015469   -.0002265
              |
        cowcc |
          20  |          0  (empty)
          40  |          0  (empty)
          41  |          0  (empty)
          42  |          0  (empty)
          51  |          0  (empty)
          52  |          0  (empty)
          70  |          0  (empty)
          90  |          0  (empty)
          91  |          0  (empty)
          92  |          0  (empty)
          93  |          0  (empty)
          94  |          0  (empty)
          95  |          0  (empty)
         100  |          0  (empty)
         101  |          0  (empty)
         110  |          0  (empty)
         130  |          0  (empty)
         135  |          0  (empty)
         140  |  -1.935675   1.956652    -0.99   0.323    -5.770641    1.899292
         145  |          0  (empty)
         150  |          0  (empty)
         155  |          0  (empty)
         160  |  -2.579644   1.801725    -1.43   0.152     -6.11096    .9516709
         165  |          0  (empty)
         200  |          0  (empty)
         205  |          0  (empty)
         210  |          0  (empty)
         211  |          0  (empty)
         220  |          0  (omitted)
         225  |          0  (empty)
         230  |          0  (empty)
         235  |          0  (empty)
         260  |          0  (empty)
         265  |          0  (empty)
         290  |          0  (empty)
         305  |          0  (empty)
         310  |          0  (empty)
         315  |          0  (empty)
         325  |          0  (empty)
         339  |          0  (empty)
         345  |   3.179055   1.649974     1.93   0.054    -.0548343    6.412944
         350  |          0  (empty)
         352  |          0  (empty)
         355  |          0  (empty)
         360  |   .6373137   1.539126     0.41   0.679    -2.379317    3.653945
         375  |          0  (empty)
         380  |   5.710325   2.135325     2.67   0.007     1.525164    9.895485
         385  |          0  (empty)
         390  |          0  (empty)
         404  |          0  (empty)
         420  |          0  (empty)
         432  |          0  (empty)
         433  |          0  (empty)
         434  |          0  (empty)
         435  |          0  (empty)
         436  |          0  (empty)
         437  |          0  (empty)
         438  |          0  (empty)
         439  |          0  (empty)
         450  |          0  (empty)
         451  |          0  (empty)
         452  |          0  (empty)
         461  |          0  (empty)
         471  |          0  (empty)
         475  |          0  (empty)
         481  |          0  (empty)
         482  |          0  (empty)
         483  |          0  (empty)
         484  |          0  (empty)
         490  |          0  (empty)
         500  |          0  (empty)
         501  |          0  (empty)
         510  |          0  (empty)
         516  |          0  (empty)
         517  |          0  (empty)
         520  |          0  (empty)
         522  |          0  (empty)
         530  |          0  (empty)
         540  |          0  (empty)
         541  |          0  (empty)
         551  |          0  (empty)
         552  |          0  (empty)
         553  |          0  (empty)
         560  |   1.019948   1.249396     0.82   0.414    -1.428824    3.468719
         565  |          0  (empty)
         570  |          0  (empty)
         571  |          0  (empty)
         572  |          0  (empty)
         581  |          0  (empty)
         590  |          0  (empty)
         600  |          0  (empty)
         615  |          0  (empty)
         616  |          0  (empty)
         620  |   3.450816   1.765798     1.95   0.051    -.0100853    6.911717
         625  |          0  (empty)
         630  |   .7253906    .816585     0.89   0.374    -.8750866    2.325868
         640  |          0  (empty)
         645  |   2.191466   1.144751     1.91   0.056    -.0522036    4.435136
         651  |          0  (empty)
         652  |          0  (empty)
         660  |          0  (empty)
         663  |          0  (empty)
         666  |   4.561048   1.604776     2.84   0.004     1.415744    7.706352
         670  |          0  (empty)
         690  |          0  (empty)
         692  |          0  (empty)
         698  |          0  (empty)
         700  |          0  (empty)
         712  |          0  (empty)
         713  |   .1545238   1.061457     0.15   0.884    -1.925894    2.234942
         731  |  -1.763597   .8936744    -1.97   0.048    -3.515167   -.0120273
         732  |  -1.558768   .7991114    -1.95   0.051    -3.124997    .0074618
         740  |          0  (empty)
         750  |          0  (omitted)
         760  |          0  (empty)
         770  |          0  (empty)
         771  |          0  (empty)
         775  |          0  (empty)
         780  |          0  (empty)
         790  |          0  (empty)
         800  |          0  (empty)
         811  |          0  (empty)
         812  |          0  (empty)
         820  |          0  (empty)
         830  |          0  (empty)
         840  |          0  (empty)
         850  |          0  (empty)
         900  |          0  (empty)
         910  |          0  (empty)
         920  |          0  (empty)
         950  |          0  (empty)
              |
        _cons |   7.655206    4.81316     1.59   0.112    -1.778414    17.08883
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. ** Appendix 3: The effect of US leader visit on alliance status (Interaction model) **
. 
. * (a) Regression table of interaction model *
. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.us_ally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.conflict l.n
> pt_rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if year<=1991, cluster(cowcc) //Model1

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.04063  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -465.00788  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -348.37143  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -310.95343  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -303.30989  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -289.6178  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -288.85125  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -288.84322  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -288.84322  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  4,263
                                                        Wald chi2(14) = 474.53
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -288.84322                       Pseudo R2     = 0.6524

                                 (Std. err. adjusted for 131 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |  -1.256864   .4817634    -2.61   0.009    -2.201103   -.3126256
              |
      us_ally |
          L1. |  -.6293307   .4583089    -1.37   0.170      -1.5276    .2689382
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |   .5558267   .2787268     1.99   0.046     .0095322    1.102121
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   .9163793   .5866872     1.56   0.118    -.2335065    2.066265
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -.5944045   .4732492    -1.26   0.209    -1.521956     .333147
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   3.822866   .7749687     4.93   0.000     2.303955    5.341777
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   1.663147   .4153143     4.00   0.000     .8491457    2.477148
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |   -.805399   .4662148    -1.73   0.084    -1.719163    .1083653
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0198648   .0091414     2.17   0.030     .0019479    .0377817
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   .7905586   .3072064     2.57   0.010     .1884452    1.392672
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   .4271991   .5884354     0.73   0.468    -.7261131    1.580511
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.390455   .1837294    -7.57   0.000    -1.750558   -1.030352
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |    .074087   .0121841     6.08   0.000     .0502066    .0979673
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0011528   .0002233    -5.16   0.000    -.0015905   -.0007151
              |
        _cons |  -4.125366   1.842941    -2.24   0.025    -7.737464   -.5132692
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 1 failure and 0 successes completely determined.

. logit nukepursue_JG i.l.vis_us##i.l.us_ally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.conflic
> t l.npt_rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if year<=1991, cluster(cowcc) //Model2

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.04063  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -464.87353  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -348.09614  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -309.72052  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -298.37853  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -289.2349  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -288.78016  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -288.77593  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -288.77593  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  4,263
                                                        Wald chi2(15) = 506.07
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -288.77593                       Pseudo R2     = 0.6525

                                      (Std. err. adjusted for 131 clusters in cowcc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   |               Robust
     nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
-------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          L.vis_us |
                1  |  -1.536486   .4222069    -3.64   0.000    -2.363997    -.708976
                   |
         L.us_ally |
                1  |  -.6568256   .4699723    -1.40   0.162    -1.577954     .264303
                   |
L.vis_us#L.us_ally |
              1 1  |   .5148986   .8957977     0.57   0.565    -1.240833     2.27063
                   |
         gdpcap_ln |
               L1. |   .5539604   .2788461     1.99   0.047     .0074321    1.100489
                   |
          industry |
               L1. |   .9212431   .5866652     1.57   0.116    -.2285995    2.071086
                   |
              demo |
               L1. |  -.5904694   .4728372    -1.25   0.212    -1.517213    .3362744
                   |
        majorpower |
               L1. |   3.823942   .7798971     4.90   0.000     2.295372    5.352512
                   |
          conflict |
               L1. |   1.675499   .4156707     4.03   0.000     .8607996    2.490199
                   |
          npt_rati |
               L1. |  -.7963338   .4673535    -1.70   0.088     -1.71233    .1196622
                   |
           npt_eff |
               L1. |   .0197583   .0092223     2.14   0.032      .001683    .0378336
                   |
               nca |
               L1. |   .7910535   .3067477     2.58   0.010     .1898391    1.392268
                   |
          senstech |
               L1. |   .4222529   .5847778     0.72   0.470    -.7238907    1.568396
                   |
               JG1 |
               L1. |  -1.391315   .1841968    -7.55   0.000    -1.752334   -1.030296
                   |
               JG2 |
               L1. |   .0741573   .0122061     6.08   0.000     .0502338    .0980807
                   |
               JG3 |
               L1. |  -.0011539   .0002232    -5.17   0.000    -.0015914   -.0007163
                   |
             _cons |  -4.113116    1.84372    -2.23   0.026     -7.72674   -.4994922
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 1 failure and 0 successes completely determined.

. 
. * (b) Marginal effectss of interaction model *
. margins, dydx(l.vis_us) at(l.us_ally=(0 1)) level(90) atmeans 

Conditional marginal effects                             Number of obs = 4,263
Model VCE: Robust

Expression: Pr(nukepursue_JG), predict()
dy/dx wrt:  1L.vis_us
1._at: 0L.vis_us    = .9594183 (mean)
       1L.vis_us    = .0405817 (mean)
       L.us_ally    =        0
       L.gdpcap_ln  = 8.035822 (mean)
       L.industry   = .2183908 (mean)
       L.demo       = .2793807 (mean)
       L.majorpower = .0023458 (mean)
       L.conflict   = .2997889 (mean)
       L.npt_rati   = .4313863 (mean)
       L.npt_eff    = 40.48171 (mean)
       L.nca        = .1825006 (mean)
       L.senstech   =  .024396 (mean)
       L.JG1        = 19.60521 (mean)
       L.JG2        = 526.9202 (mean)
       L.JG3        = 16431.54 (mean)
2._at: 0L.vis_us    = .9594183 (mean)
       1L.vis_us    = .0405817 (mean)
       L.us_ally    =        1
       L.gdpcap_ln  = 8.035822 (mean)
       L.industry   = .2183908 (mean)
       L.demo       = .2793807 (mean)
       L.majorpower = .0023458 (mean)
       L.conflict   = .2997889 (mean)
       L.npt_rati   = .4313863 (mean)
       L.npt_eff    = 40.48171 (mean)
       L.nca        = .1825006 (mean)
       L.senstech   =  .024396 (mean)
       L.JG1        = 19.60521 (mean)
       L.JG2        = 526.9202 (mean)
       L.JG3        = 16431.54 (mean)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   std. err.      z    P>|z|     [90% conf. interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
0L.vis_us    |  (base outcome)
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1L.vis_us    |
         _at |
          1  |  -.0027078   .0013188    -2.05   0.040    -.0048771   -.0005385
          2  |  -.0011468   .0008197    -1.40   0.162    -.0024951    .0002014
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.

. marginsplot, ///
>         recast(scatter) ///
>         title("") ///
>     xtitle("US allies") ///
>         xscale(range(-0.2 1.2)) ///
>         xlabel(1 "US non-allies" 0 "US allies", angle(0)) ///
>         ytitle("Marginal Effect of US leader visit (dy/dx)") ///
>         ylabel(, angle(0)) /// 
>         yline(0, lwidth(thin) lpattern(shortdash)) /// 
>         legend(off)

Variables that uniquely identify margins: L.us_ally

. 
end of do-file

. do "C:\Users\dudtk\AppData\Local\Temp\STD30f8_000000.tmp"

.         
. ** Appendix4 : The effect of superpower leader visit on nuclear pursuit (Singh and Way dataset) 
> **
. logit nukepursue_SW l.vis_us l.vis_rus l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.c
> onflict l.npt_rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.SW1 l.SW2 l.SW3 if year<=1991, cluster(cowcc) //
> Model1

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -749.05294  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -435.20729  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -382.41298  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -300.07647  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -300.03718  (backed up)
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -300.02755  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -300.02725  (backed up)
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -300.02725  (backed up)
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -251.59943  (backed up)
Iteration 9:   log pseudolikelihood = -250.22182  
Iteration 10:  log pseudolikelihood = -250.20594  
Iteration 11:  log pseudolikelihood = -250.20593  

Logistic regression                                    Number of obs =   4,266
                                                       Wald chi2(15) = 1834.63
                                                       Prob > chi2   =  0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -250.20593                      Pseudo R2     =  0.6660

                                 (Std. err. adjusted for 131 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_SW | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |  -1.151419   .5597268    -2.06   0.040    -2.248464    -.054375
              |
      vis_rus |
          L1. |   .3702784   1.124758     0.33   0.742    -1.834206    2.574763
              |
     nukeally |
          L1. |   .0048649   .5254786     0.01   0.993    -1.025054    1.034784
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |   .3643416    .363922     1.00   0.317    -.3489323    1.077616
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   1.504709   .8553534     1.76   0.079    -.1717529    3.181171
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -.7906388   .5043806    -1.57   0.117    -1.779207    .1979289
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   3.309047   .9673508     3.42   0.001     1.413074     5.20502
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   1.772552    .503909     3.52   0.000     .7849081    2.760195
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -.9294954   .5827145    -1.60   0.111    -2.071595     .212604
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0179779   .0092808     1.94   0.053    -.0002121    .0361679
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   .1203364   .3211191     0.37   0.708    -.5090455    .7497183
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   1.134737   .8148789     1.39   0.164    -.4623966     2.73187
              |
          SW1 |
          L1. |  -1.378803   .1259767   -10.94   0.000    -1.625713   -1.131894
              |
          SW2 |
          L1. |   .0702669   .0096685     7.27   0.000      .051317    .0892168
              |
          SW3 |
          L1. |   -.001037   .0001966    -5.28   0.000    -.0014223   -.0006518
              |
        _cons |  -2.815864   2.542822    -1.11   0.268    -7.799703    2.167974
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit nukepursue_SW l.vis_us l.vis_rus l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.c
> onflict l.npt_rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.SW1 l.SW2 l.SW3 if l.conflict==1 & year<=1991, c
> luster(cowcc) //Model2 

note: L.conflict omitted because of collinearity.
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -409.57791  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -250.79211  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -169.62937  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -141.30595  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -140.13948  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -140.12711  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -140.12711  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  1,281
                                                        Wald chi2(14) = 803.98
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -140.12711                       Pseudo R2     = 0.6579

                                  (Std. err. adjusted for 47 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_SW | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |  -1.576055   .3609267    -4.37   0.000    -2.283459    -.868652
              |
      vis_rus |
          L1. |   2.702518   1.550926     1.74   0.081     -.337241    5.742277
              |
     nukeally |
          L1. |   .6368228   .7757082     0.82   0.412    -.8835374    2.157183
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |   -.855891   .6982615    -1.23   0.220    -2.224458    .5126765
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   2.293596   1.089758     2.10   0.035     .1577091    4.429483
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -1.360746   1.026931    -1.33   0.185    -3.373493    .6520022
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   3.629129   1.353229     2.68   0.007     .9768494    6.281408
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |          0  (omitted)
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -1.661342   .8096348    -2.05   0.040    -3.248197   -.0744874
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0030476   .0099189     0.31   0.759     -.016393    .0224883
              |
          nca |
          L1. |  -.0317525   .4737022    -0.07   0.947    -.9601919    .8966868
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   2.850502   1.355173     2.10   0.035     .1944124    5.506591
              |
          SW1 |
          L1. |  -1.497342   .2235233    -6.70   0.000    -1.935439   -1.059244
              |
          SW2 |
          L1. |   .0778386   .0142741     5.45   0.000     .0498619    .1058153
              |
          SW3 |
          L1. |  -.0011193   .0002373    -4.72   0.000    -.0015845   -.0006542
              |
        _cons |    8.73935   5.196634     1.68   0.093    -1.445865    18.92456
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit nukepursue_SW l.vis_us l.vis_rus l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.c
> onflict l.npt_rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.SW1 l.SW2 l.SW3 i.year if year<=1991, cluster(co
> wcc) //Model3

note: 1952.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      1952.year omitted and 64 obs not used.

note: 1953.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      1953.year omitted and 66 obs not used.

note: 1991.year omitted because of collinearity.
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -743.32718  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -420.33666  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -389.86042  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -240.08778  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -237.46424  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -237.36638  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -237.32947  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -237.31325  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -237.30563  
Iteration 9:   log pseudolikelihood = -237.30194  (backed up)
Iteration 10:  log pseudolikelihood = -237.30012  (backed up)
Iteration 11:  log pseudolikelihood = -237.29921  (backed up)
Iteration 12:  log pseudolikelihood = -237.29876  (backed up)
Iteration 13:  log pseudolikelihood = -237.29854  (backed up)
Iteration 14:  log pseudolikelihood = -237.29843  (backed up)
Iteration 15:  log pseudolikelihood = -237.29837  (backed up)
Iteration 16:  log pseudolikelihood = -237.29834  (backed up)
Iteration 17:  log pseudolikelihood = -237.29833  (backed up)
Iteration 18:  log pseudolikelihood = -237.29832  (backed up)
Iteration 19:  log pseudolikelihood = -237.29832  (backed up)
Iteration 20:  log pseudolikelihood = -237.29832  (backed up)
Iteration 21:  log pseudolikelihood = -237.29832  (backed up)
Iteration 22:  log pseudolikelihood = -237.29832  (backed up)
Iteration 23:  log pseudolikelihood = -237.29832  (backed up)
Iteration 24:  log pseudolikelihood = -230.56809  (backed up)
Iteration 25:  log pseudolikelihood = -223.66183  
Iteration 26:  log pseudolikelihood = -219.67965  
Iteration 27:  log pseudolikelihood = -219.37115  
Iteration 28:  log pseudolikelihood = -219.31749  
Iteration 29:  log pseudolikelihood = -219.30537  
Iteration 30:  log pseudolikelihood = -219.30234  
Iteration 31:  log pseudolikelihood = -219.30175  
Iteration 32:  log pseudolikelihood = -219.30166  
Iteration 33:  log pseudolikelihood = -219.30164  
Iteration 34:  log pseudolikelihood = -219.30163  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  4,136
                                                        Wald chi2(16) =      .
                                                        Prob > chi2   =      .
Log pseudolikelihood = -219.30163                       Pseudo R2     = 0.7050

                                 (Std. err. adjusted for 131 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_SW | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |  -1.409313   .5638779    -2.50   0.012    -2.514493   -.3041322
              |
      vis_rus |
          L1. |   .7887201   1.120616     0.70   0.482    -1.407646    2.985086
              |
     nukeally |
          L1. |   .1919539   .5597024     0.34   0.732    -.9050426     1.28895
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |   .3240955   .3857521     0.84   0.401    -.4319648    1.080156
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   1.560423   .9090939     1.72   0.086    -.2213679    3.342215
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -.7807396   .5631906    -1.39   0.166    -1.884573    .3230937
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   36.28691   2.389759    15.18   0.000     31.60307    40.97075
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   1.789319   .6072484     2.95   0.003     .5991338    2.979504
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -1.042807   .5524162    -1.89   0.059    -2.125523    .0399085
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .4323992   .0355834    12.15   0.000      .362657    .5021413
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   .0901021   .4144823     0.22   0.828    -.7222683    .9024724
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   1.183333   .9318528     1.27   0.204    -.6430648    3.009731
              |
          SW1 |
          L1. |  -1.501665     .15759    -9.53   0.000    -1.810536   -1.192794
              |
          SW2 |
          L1. |   .0756812   .0095715     7.91   0.000     .0569213     .094441
              |
          SW3 |
          L1. |  -.0010996   .0001656    -6.64   0.000    -.0014241   -.0007751
              |
         year |
        1952  |          0  (empty)
        1953  |          0  (empty)
        1954  |   20.65008   1.795735    11.50   0.000     17.13051    24.16966
        1955  |   20.54002   2.130533     9.64   0.000     16.36425    24.71578
        1956  |   13.94121   1.737832     8.02   0.000     10.53512     17.3473
        1957  |   15.09674   1.913894     7.89   0.000     11.34557     18.8479
        1958  |   35.81272   1.317949    27.17   0.000     33.22958    38.39585
        1959  |   36.71698   2.320313    15.82   0.000     32.16925    41.26471
        1960  |   35.99741   2.347216    15.34   0.000     31.39695    40.59787
        1961  |   35.06411   2.689702    13.04   0.000     29.79239    40.33583
        1962  |   35.84582   2.890222    12.40   0.000     30.18109    41.51056
        1963  |   35.16982   1.745457    20.15   0.000     31.74879    38.59085
        1964  |   36.37757    2.29781    15.83   0.000     31.87395     40.8812
        1965  |   37.21354   3.056919    12.17   0.000     31.22209    43.20499
        1966  |   36.79287   2.073167    17.75   0.000     32.72954     40.8562
        1967  |   36.84653    1.17759    31.29   0.000     34.53849    39.15456
        1968  |   37.42603   2.881664    12.99   0.000     31.77807    43.07399
        1969  |   35.71281   2.334372    15.30   0.000     31.13753     40.2881
        1970  |   30.50733   2.494759    12.23   0.000     25.61769    35.39697
        1971  |   17.66023   1.374661    12.85   0.000     14.96594    20.35451
        1972  |   16.14862   1.449853    11.14   0.000     13.30696    18.99029
        1973  |   15.06254   1.463381    10.29   0.000     12.19437    17.93072
        1974  |   13.55235   1.195782    11.33   0.000     11.20866    15.89604
        1975  |   13.20436   1.247923    10.58   0.000     10.75847    15.65024
        1976  |   9.721135   .8914608    10.90   0.000     7.973904    11.46837
        1977  |   8.543752   .8589927     9.95   0.000     6.860157    10.22735
        1978  |   8.690862   1.528953     5.68   0.000     5.694169    11.68755
        1979  |   8.612574   1.697363     5.07   0.000     5.285803    11.93934
        1980  |     7.3283   1.223254     5.99   0.000     4.930766    9.725834
        1981  |   6.943908   1.215966     5.71   0.000      4.56066    9.327157
        1982  |   7.347742    1.06465     6.90   0.000     5.261067    9.434416
        1983  |   6.894801   1.020705     6.75   0.000     4.894255    8.895346
        1984  |   6.656418   .8302748     8.02   0.000     5.029109    8.283727
        1985  |   6.639714   .9812855     6.77   0.000      4.71643    8.562998
        1986  |   5.235016   1.026548     5.10   0.000     3.223019    7.247014
        1987  |   3.663397   .9526382     3.85   0.000      1.79626    5.530533
        1988  |   3.281853   .9562924     3.43   0.001     1.407554    5.156152
        1989  |   2.820988   .9672203     2.92   0.004     .9252714    4.716705
        1990  |   2.429644   1.010697     2.40   0.016     .4487146    4.410574
        1991  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -38.30235   3.750959   -10.21   0.000    -45.65409    -30.9506
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 335 failures and 2 successes completely determined.

. logit nukepursue_SW l.vis_us l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.conflict l.npt_rati l.
> npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.SW1 l.SW2 l.SW3 if l.us_ally==1 & year<=1991, cluster(cowcc) //Model4

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -273.38568  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -154.81169  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -125.78667  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -92.256023  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -82.794713  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -80.815651  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -80.608216  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -80.607205  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -80.607204  

Logistic regression                                    Number of obs =   1,492
                                                       Wald chi2(13) = 4117.27
                                                       Prob > chi2   =  0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -80.607204                      Pseudo R2     =  0.7052

                                  (Std. err. adjusted for 42 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_SW | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |  -1.284844   .8024861    -1.60   0.109    -2.857688    .2879997
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |  -.3493007   .6923391    -0.50   0.614     -1.70626    1.007659
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   1.379674   .7411109     1.86   0.063    -.0728765    2.832225
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -1.326526   .7287716    -1.82   0.069    -2.754892    .1018404
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   3.464981   1.225928     2.83   0.005     1.062206    5.867756
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   1.209484   .6500216     1.86   0.063    -.0645345    2.483503
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -3.545904   .8316404    -4.26   0.000    -5.175889   -1.915919
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |    .009264   .0137027     0.68   0.499    -.0175929    .0361208
              |
          nca |
          L1. |  -.5781766   .3087363    -1.87   0.061    -1.183289    .0269354
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |     -.1913   .5726545    -0.33   0.738    -1.313682    .9310821
              |
          SW1 |
          L1. |  -1.950679   .3523943    -5.54   0.000    -2.641359   -1.259999
              |
          SW2 |
          L1. |   .1081777   .0234394     4.62   0.000     .0622373    .1541181
              |
          SW3 |
          L1. |  -.0017116   .0004576    -3.74   0.000    -.0026085   -.0008148
              |
        _cons |   6.813599   6.287754     1.08   0.279    -5.510173    19.13737
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 89 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. logit nukepursue_SW l.vis_us l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.conflict l.npt_rati l.
> npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.SW1 l.SW2 l.SW3 if l.us_ally==0 & year<=1991, cluster(cowcc) //Model5

note: L.majorpower omitted because of collinearity.
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -475.49534  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -265.29128  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -162.72033  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -141.58436  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -140.05139  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -140.03777  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -140.03776  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  2,774
                                                        Wald chi2(12) = 595.49
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -140.03776                       Pseudo R2     = 0.7055

                                 (Std. err. adjusted for 102 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_SW | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |   -1.98229   .5542402    -3.58   0.000    -3.068581   -.8959992
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |   .2954795   .4122683     0.72   0.474    -.5125515    1.103511
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   1.652778   .9382391     1.76   0.078    -.1861365    3.491693
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -.8881434   .8029892    -1.11   0.269    -2.461973    .6856866
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |          0  (omitted)
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   2.615939   .5932016     4.41   0.000     1.453285    3.778592
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |   .4432459   .5050617     0.88   0.380    -.5466568    1.433149
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0219886   .0118361     1.86   0.063    -.0012096    .0451869
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   .2943402   .5066624     0.58   0.561    -.6986998     1.28738
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   1.100932   .7752342     1.42   0.156    -.4184995    2.620363
              |
          SW1 |
          L1. |   -1.47698   .2491367    -5.93   0.000    -1.965278   -.9886806
              |
          SW2 |
          L1. |   .0697449   .0154983     4.50   0.000     .0393689     .100121
              |
          SW3 |
          L1. |  -.0009695   .0002612    -3.71   0.000    -.0014815   -.0004576
              |
        _cons |  -2.884548   2.918139    -0.99   0.323    -8.603996      2.8349
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ** Appendix 5: The effect of superpower leader visit on nuclear pursuit (Smith and Malis dataset
> ) **
. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us_smith l.vis_rus l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpow
> er l.conflict l.npt_rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if year<=1991, cluster(cow
> cc) //Model1

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.04063  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -464.85047  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -348.91913  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -312.34627  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -304.80795  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -291.27186  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -290.51619  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -290.50858  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -290.50858  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  4,263
                                                        Wald chi2(15) = 445.62
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -290.50858                       Pseudo R2     = 0.6504

                                 (Std. err. adjusted for 131 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 vis_us_smith |
          L1. |  -1.313162    .526998    -2.49   0.013    -2.346059   -.2802646
              |
      vis_rus |
          L1. |   -.305743   .5173272    -0.59   0.555    -1.319686    .7081997
              |
     nukeally |
          L1. |   -.288957   .3936589    -0.73   0.463    -1.060514    .4826003
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |   .5044262   .2799142     1.80   0.072    -.0441955    1.053048
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   .9804239   .5977629     1.64   0.101    -.1911698    2.152018
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -.6118916   .4826542    -1.27   0.205    -1.557877    .3340933
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   3.537697   .7204828     4.91   0.000     2.125577    4.949817
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   1.621398   .4080769     3.97   0.000      .821582    2.421214
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -.7413215   .4728467    -1.57   0.117    -1.668084    .1854411
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0188865   .0092869     2.03   0.042     .0006846    .0370884
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   .7528146   .3076483     2.45   0.014     .1498349    1.355794
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |    .509401   .6392724     0.80   0.426    -.7435499    1.762352
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.407864   .1808764    -7.78   0.000    -1.762375   -1.053353
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0754124   .0120336     6.27   0.000      .051827    .0989978
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0011778   .0002227    -5.29   0.000    -.0016144   -.0007412
              |
        _cons |  -3.668918   1.834233    -2.00   0.045    -7.263948   -.0738878
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 1 failure and 0 successes completely determined.

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us_smith l.vis_rus l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpow
> er l.conflict l.npt_rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if l.conflict==1 & year<=1
> 991, cluster(cowcc) //Model2 

note: L.conflict omitted because of collinearity.
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -409.26951  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -261.92203  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -184.1398  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -162.06436  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -160.61456  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -160.5196  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -160.51928  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -160.51928  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  1,278
                                                        Wald chi2(14) = 574.95
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -160.51928                       Pseudo R2     = 0.6078

                                  (Std. err. adjusted for 47 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 vis_us_smith |
          L1. |    -.96291   .3896768    -2.47   0.013    -1.726662   -.1991575
              |
      vis_rus |
          L1. |   1.331305   .5511812     2.42   0.016     .2510095      2.4116
              |
     nukeally |
          L1. |    .181963   .5494526     0.33   0.741    -.8949443     1.25887
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |    .011756     .32815     0.04   0.971    -.6314061    .6549181
              |
     industry |
          L1. |    .536122   .6998351     0.77   0.444    -.8355297    1.907774
              |
         demo |
          L1. |   -.281025   .7040121    -0.40   0.690    -1.660863    1.098813
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   3.217363   .8721833     3.69   0.000     1.507916    4.926811
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |          0  (omitted)
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -1.195246   .7393306    -1.62   0.106    -2.644307    .2538155
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0238828    .010815     2.21   0.027     .0026859    .0450797
              |
          nca |
          L1. |    .481711   .4208504     1.14   0.252    -.3431406    1.306563
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   .7705829    .624391     1.23   0.217    -.4532009    1.994367
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.216031   .2119338    -5.74   0.000    -1.631414   -.8006486
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0651649    .014776     4.41   0.000     .0362045    .0941254
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |   -.001031   .0002764    -3.73   0.000    -.0015727   -.0004892
              |
        _cons |   1.306132   2.027405     0.64   0.519    -2.667508    5.279773
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us_smith l.vis_rus l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpow
> er l.conflict l.npt_rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 i.year if year<=1991, clus
> ter(cowcc) //Model3

note: 1991.year omitted because of collinearity.
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -831.04063  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -468.46664  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -330.85062  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -279.94465  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -270.83329  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -269.48699  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -269.45004  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -269.44998  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -269.44998  

Logistic regression                                    Number of obs =   4,263
                                                       Wald chi2(54) = 7947.80
                                                       Prob > chi2   =  0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -269.44998                      Pseudo R2     =  0.6758

                                 (Std. err. adjusted for 131 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 vis_us_smith |
          L1. |  -1.072431   .4672359    -2.30   0.022    -1.988197   -.1566656
              |
      vis_rus |
          L1. |  -.4728944   .4034806    -1.17   0.241    -1.263702     .317913
              |
     nukeally |
          L1. |  -.2695223   .4806297    -0.56   0.575    -1.211539    .6724946
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |   .4260719   .3065704     1.39   0.165     -.174795    1.026939
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   .8659325   .6756503     1.28   0.200    -.4583178    2.190183
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -.7065954   .5232397    -1.35   0.177    -1.732126    .3189356
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   3.819631   1.263037     3.02   0.002     1.344125    6.295137
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   1.581766   .4840882     3.27   0.001     .6329705    2.530561
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -.8703009   .5248614    -1.66   0.097     -1.89901    .1584086
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0075908   .0223081     0.34   0.734    -.0361323    .0513139
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   1.050006   .3402498     3.09   0.002     .3831292    1.716884
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   .6101377   .6479398     0.94   0.346    -.6598009    1.880076
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.577084   .1991949    -7.92   0.000    -1.967499    -1.18667
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0846522   .0125068     6.77   0.000     .0601393    .1091651
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0013139   .0002112    -6.22   0.000    -.0017279   -.0008999
              |
         year |
        1952  |  -.1411878   .4503752    -0.31   0.754    -1.023907    .7415314
        1953  |   1.380456   1.292644     1.07   0.286    -1.153081    3.913992
        1954  |   2.690721   1.530212     1.76   0.079    -.3084389    5.689882
        1955  |   2.232972   1.709519     1.31   0.191    -1.117623    5.583567
        1956  |   1.169493   1.576602     0.74   0.458    -1.920591    4.259576
        1957  |   .1820572   1.385085     0.13   0.895    -2.532659    2.896774
        1958  |   .9433722   1.443211     0.65   0.513    -1.885269    3.772014
        1959  |   1.734177   1.380585     1.26   0.209    -.9717204    4.440074
        1960  |   1.931545    1.37539     1.40   0.160    -.7641694    4.627259
        1961  |   .1508451   1.334539     0.11   0.910    -2.464803    2.766493
        1962  |   .6714998   1.271467     0.53   0.597    -1.820531     3.16353
        1963  |    .124801   1.424904     0.09   0.930     -2.66796    2.917562
        1964  |   .7720417   1.508615     0.51   0.609     -2.18479    3.728874
        1965  |   .9875165   1.504593     0.66   0.512    -1.961432    3.936465
        1966  |  -1.163946   1.406791    -0.83   0.408    -3.921205    1.593313
        1967  |   .2801363   1.818256     0.15   0.878     -3.28358    3.843853
        1968  |   1.265634   1.832381     0.69   0.490    -2.325767    4.857034
        1969  |   .6373432   1.409758     0.45   0.651    -2.125732    3.400419
        1970  |    .905168   2.279452     0.40   0.691    -3.562476    5.372812
        1971  |   2.193787   1.315354     1.67   0.095    -.3842598    4.771833
        1972  |   1.914855   1.133038     1.69   0.091    -.3058593    4.135569
        1973  |   2.156215   .9664325     2.23   0.026     .2620421    4.050388
        1974  |   2.136072   .8213152     2.60   0.009     .5263237     3.74582
        1975  |   1.590858   .7154725     2.22   0.026      .188558    2.993159
        1976  |   .6434445    .718587     0.90   0.371    -.7649602    2.051849
        1977  |  -.1067542   .7150636    -0.15   0.881    -1.508253    1.294745
        1978  |   1.545652   1.135572     1.36   0.173    -.6800282    3.771332
        1979  |   1.374411   1.245335     1.10   0.270      -1.0664    3.815222
        1980  |   .8987704   .9595243     0.94   0.349    -.9818625    2.779403
        1981  |   1.739108   1.072997     1.62   0.105    -.3639269    3.842143
        1982  |   2.910376   1.036186     2.81   0.005     .8794898    4.941263
        1983  |    2.73782   .8337088     3.28   0.001     1.103781     4.37186
        1984  |   2.735307   .7917166     3.45   0.001     1.183571    4.287043
        1985  |   2.574114   .7886359     3.26   0.001     1.028416    4.119812
        1986  |   2.296537   .8193318     2.80   0.005      .690676    3.902398
        1987  |    2.40626   .8431013     2.85   0.004     .7538118    4.058708
        1988  |   1.747938   .9903924     1.76   0.078     -.193195    3.689072
        1989  |   1.696464   .9245849     1.83   0.067     -.115689    3.508617
        1990  |   1.328238   .7185729     1.85   0.065    -.0801388    2.736615
        1991  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -3.552662   2.179803    -1.63   0.103    -7.824997    .7196736
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 37 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us_smith l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.conflict l.npt_r
> ati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if l.us_ally==1 & year<=1991, cluster(cowcc) //
> Model4

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -217.37603  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -150.12912  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =   -108.145  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -72.551058  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -58.680451  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -54.969319  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -54.350659  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -54.33635  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -54.336348  

Logistic regression                                    Number of obs =   1,547
                                                       Wald chi2(13) = 3158.31
                                                       Prob > chi2   =  0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -54.336348                      Pseudo R2     =  0.7500

                                  (Std. err. adjusted for 44 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 vis_us_smith |
          L1. |  -1.645115   1.371928    -1.20   0.230    -4.334044    1.043814
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |  -1.092221   .8520323    -1.28   0.200    -2.762174    .5777317
              |
     industry |
          L1. |    .842474   1.636445     0.51   0.607      -2.3649    4.049848
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -2.748695   .7368175    -3.73   0.000    -4.192831   -1.304559
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   6.315638   1.327874     4.76   0.000     3.713052    8.918224
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   2.111021   .7220889     2.92   0.003     .6957531     3.52629
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -5.530559    1.62583    -3.40   0.001    -8.717127   -2.343991
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0567475   .0239826     2.37   0.018     .0097424    .1037526
              |
          nca |
          L1. |  -.3023968   .2582163    -1.17   0.242    -.8084914    .2036977
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |  -.4948963   .8210853    -0.60   0.547    -2.104194    1.114401
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.800915   .3171409    -5.68   0.000      -2.4225    -1.17933
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0973073   .0199681     4.87   0.000     .0581705    .1364441
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0015451   .0003876    -3.99   0.000    -.0023049   -.0007853
              |
        _cons |     10.956   7.428579     1.47   0.140    -3.603748    25.51575
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 133 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us_smith l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.conflict l.npt_r
> ati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if l.us_ally==0 & year<=1991, cluster(cowcc) //
> Model5

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -663.79427  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -643.31667  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -347.69133  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -272.57004  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -244.51435  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -238.92911  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -238.79148  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -238.79105  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -238.79105  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  2,946
                                                        Wald chi2(13) = 253.79
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -238.79105                       Pseudo R2     = 0.6403

                                 (Std. err. adjusted for 110 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 vis_us_smith |
          L1. |  -1.490741   .4937555    -3.02   0.003    -2.458484   -.5229985
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |   .3811126   .2606926     1.46   0.144    -.1298355    .8920607
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   1.041706   .5954793     1.75   0.080    -.1254116    2.208824
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -.2171996   .5195063    -0.42   0.676    -1.235413    .8010141
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   1.160954   2.207113     0.53   0.599    -3.164909    5.486816
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   1.720928    .449126     3.83   0.000     .8406574    2.601199
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |   .3055242   .5329277     0.57   0.566    -.7389948    1.350043
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0107133   .0109929     0.97   0.330    -.0108323    .0322589
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   1.293243   .4563562     2.83   0.005     .3988015    2.187685
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   .6239824   .5718811     1.09   0.275    -.4968839    1.744849
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.340125   .2159539    -6.21   0.000    -1.763387    -.916863
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0704896   .0146718     4.80   0.000     .0417334    .0992458
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0010961    .000278    -3.94   0.000    -.0016409   -.0005513
              |
        _cons |  -3.172773   1.580611    -2.01   0.045    -6.270715    -.074832
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ** Appendix 6: The effect of superpower leader visit on nuclear pursuit (using propensity score 
> matching) **
. 
. * (a) Regression table with propensity score matching *
. 
. psmatch2 vis_us us_ally conflict gdpcap_ln industry nuke_latency majorpower demo npt_rati, outco
> me(nukepursue_JG) neighbor(1)

Probit regression                                       Number of obs =  4,545
                                                        LR chi2(8)    = 225.10
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -676.62574                             Pseudo R2     = 0.1426

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      vis_us | Coefficient  Std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     us_ally |   .4326591   .0786693     5.50   0.000     .2784701    .5868481
    conflict |   .0725419   .0821854     0.88   0.377    -.0885386    .2336224
   gdpcap_ln |   .1796823   .0575316     3.12   0.002     .0669224    .2924422
    industry |   .5405613   .0952258     5.68   0.000     .3539222    .7272005
nuke_latency |   .3108424   .1259021     2.47   0.014     .0640789     .557606
  majorpower |   .1282834   .3893991     0.33   0.742    -.6349249    .8914916
        demo |   .0115145   .0929992     0.12   0.901    -.1707606    .1937897
    npt_rati |  -.0101545   .0779197    -0.13   0.896    -.1628744    .1425654
       _cons |  -3.697559    .451897    -8.18   0.000    -4.583261   -2.811857
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Variable     Sample |    Treated     Controls   Difference         S.E.   T-stat
----------------------------+-----------------------------------------------------------
   nukepursue_JG  Unmatched | .047368421   .047301952   .000066469   .015736963     0.00
                        ATT | .047368421   .042105263   .005263158   .022994758     0.23
----------------------------+-----------------------------------------------------------
Note: S.E. does not take into account that the propensity score is estimated.

           | psmatch2:
 psmatch2: |   Common
 Treatment |  support
assignment | On suppor |     Total
-----------+-----------+----------
 Untreated |     4,355 |     4,355 
   Treated |       190 |       190 
-----------+-----------+----------
     Total |     4,545 |     4,545 

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.conflict l.
> npt_rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 [iweight=_pscore] if year<=1991, cluster(c
> owcc) //Model1

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -50.041873  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -34.550265  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -34.146997  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -23.680582  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -23.680528  (backed up)
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -23.680514  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -16.13922  (backed up)
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -15.696799  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -14.638095  
Iteration 9:   log pseudolikelihood = -14.503653  
Iteration 10:  log pseudolikelihood = -14.502312  
Iteration 11:  log pseudolikelihood = -14.502312  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  4,254
                                                        Wald chi2(14) = 474.51
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -14.502312                       Pseudo R2     = 0.7102

                                 (Std. err. adjusted for 131 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |  -1.553438   .8920875    -1.74   0.082    -3.301898    .1950213
              |
     nukeally |
          L1. |  -.6879423   .4115711    -1.67   0.095    -1.494607    .1187223
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |  -.1362237   .2813135    -0.48   0.628    -.6875881    .4151406
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   1.425093   .5807626     2.45   0.014     .2868192    2.563367
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -1.201612   .4958083    -2.42   0.015    -2.173378   -.2298456
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   4.894935   .7293649     6.71   0.000     3.465406    6.324464
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   .8261642    .389659     2.12   0.034     .0624465    1.589882
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -1.966987   .5798627    -3.39   0.001    -3.103497   -.8304771
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0253286   .0098549     2.57   0.010     .0060133    .0446438
              |
          nca |
          L1. |     .19764   .3052297     0.65   0.517    -.4005991    .7958792
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   .7668517   .4285249     1.79   0.074    -.0730417    1.606745
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.356153   .2466828    -5.50   0.000    -1.839643   -.8726641
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0704791   .0136378     5.17   0.000     .0437496    .0972086
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0010528   .0002015    -5.22   0.000    -.0014478   -.0006578
              |
        _cons |    2.46465   1.916587     1.29   0.198    -1.291791    6.221091
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. psmatch2 vis_rus soviet_ally conflict gdpcap_ln industry nuke_latency majorpower demo npt_rati, 
> outcome(nukepursue_JG) neighbor(1)

Probit regression                                       Number of obs =  4,545
                                                        LR chi2(8)    = 316.64
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -410.56138                             Pseudo R2     = 0.2783

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     vis_rus | Coefficient  Std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 soviet_ally |   1.455953   .1082102    13.45   0.000     1.243865    1.668041
    conflict |  -.1187482   .1215203    -0.98   0.328    -.3569235    .1194272
   gdpcap_ln |   .1351338   .0693151     1.95   0.051    -.0007214    .2709889
    industry |   .4239066   .1228324     3.45   0.001     .1831594    .6646538
nuke_latency |     .35155   .1795039     1.96   0.050    -.0002711    .7033712
  majorpower |  -.4744788   .4929955    -0.96   0.336    -1.440732    .4917746
        demo |  -.1469726   .1316074    -1.12   0.264    -.4049183    .1109731
    npt_rati |  -.4032514   .1077744    -3.74   0.000    -.6144853   -.1920175
       _cons |  -3.373142   .5447485    -6.19   0.000    -4.440829   -2.305454
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Variable     Sample |    Treated     Controls   Difference         S.E.   T-stat
----------------------------+-----------------------------------------------------------
   nukepursue_JG  Unmatched | .064516129   .046821986   .017694143   .019332173     0.92
                        ATT | .064516129   .040322581   .024193548    .04114651     0.59
----------------------------+-----------------------------------------------------------
Note: S.E. does not take into account that the propensity score is estimated.

           | psmatch2:
 psmatch2: |   Common
 Treatment |  support
assignment | On suppor |     Total
-----------+-----------+----------
 Untreated |     4,421 |     4,421 
   Treated |       124 |       124 
-----------+-----------+----------
     Total |     4,545 |     4,545 

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_rus l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.conflict l
> .npt_rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 [iweight=_pscore] if year<=1991, cluster(
> cowcc) //Model2

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -32.664097  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -21.560409  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -18.777574  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -17.183127  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =  -17.18309  (backed up)
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -17.183071  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -17.183062  (backed up)
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -10.522565  (backed up)
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -9.7681169  
Iteration 9:   log pseudolikelihood = -9.6137664  
Iteration 10:  log pseudolikelihood = -9.6091608  
Iteration 11:  log pseudolikelihood = -9.6091449  
Iteration 12:  log pseudolikelihood = -9.6091449  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  4,254
                                                        Wald chi2(14) = 447.14
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -9.6091449                       Pseudo R2     = 0.7058

                                 (Std. err. adjusted for 131 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      vis_rus |
          L1. |   -.577915   .4352041    -1.33   0.184    -1.430899    .2750693
              |
     nukeally |
          L1. |  -.3686775    .443067    -0.83   0.405    -1.237073     .499718
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |  -.9240679   .5610059    -1.65   0.100    -2.023619    .1754835
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   2.313979    .756177     3.06   0.002      .831899    3.796059
              |
         demo |
          L1. |   .0282963   .8006004     0.04   0.972    -1.540852    1.597444
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   4.298462   1.077116     3.99   0.000     2.187355     6.40957
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   1.862617   .5389216     3.46   0.001     .8063503    2.918884
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -.6123239   .5925334    -1.03   0.301    -1.773668    .5490203
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0267281   .0121526     2.20   0.028     .0029096    .0505467
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   .1829381   .3560043     0.51   0.607    -.5148174    .8806937
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   .5346945   .5037249     1.06   0.288    -.4525881    1.521977
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |   -1.44092   .3731942    -3.86   0.000    -2.172367   -.7094724
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0717464   .0196552     3.65   0.000     .0332228    .1102699
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0010006   .0002648    -3.78   0.000    -.0015196   -.0004817
              |
        _cons |   7.039177   4.496986     1.57   0.118    -1.774754    15.85311
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. psmatch2 vis_us us_ally conflict gdpcap_ln industry nuke_latency majorpower demo npt_rati, outco
> me(nukepursue_JG) neighbor(1)

Probit regression                                       Number of obs =  4,545
                                                        LR chi2(8)    = 225.10
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -676.62574                             Pseudo R2     = 0.1426

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      vis_us | Coefficient  Std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     us_ally |   .4326591   .0786693     5.50   0.000     .2784701    .5868481
    conflict |   .0725419   .0821854     0.88   0.377    -.0885386    .2336224
   gdpcap_ln |   .1796823   .0575316     3.12   0.002     .0669224    .2924422
    industry |   .5405613   .0952258     5.68   0.000     .3539222    .7272005
nuke_latency |   .3108424   .1259021     2.47   0.014     .0640789     .557606
  majorpower |   .1282834   .3893991     0.33   0.742    -.6349249    .8914916
        demo |   .0115145   .0929992     0.12   0.901    -.1707606    .1937897
    npt_rati |  -.0101545   .0779197    -0.13   0.896    -.1628744    .1425654
       _cons |  -3.697559    .451897    -8.18   0.000    -4.583261   -2.811857
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Variable     Sample |    Treated     Controls   Difference         S.E.   T-stat
----------------------------+-----------------------------------------------------------
   nukepursue_JG  Unmatched | .047368421   .047301952   .000066469   .015736963     0.00
                        ATT | .047368421   .042105263   .005263158   .022994758     0.23
----------------------------+-----------------------------------------------------------
Note: S.E. does not take into account that the propensity score is estimated.

           | psmatch2:
 psmatch2: |   Common
 Treatment |  support
assignment | On suppor |     Total
-----------+-----------+----------
 Untreated |     4,355 |     4,355 
   Treated |       190 |       190 
-----------+-----------+----------
     Total |     4,545 |     4,545 

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.conflict l.npt_rati l.
> npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 [iweight=_pscore] if l.us_ally==1 & year<=1991 , clus
> ter(cowcc) //Model3

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -27.285649  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -19.954724  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -16.301256  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -15.628531  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -8.5211805  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -5.4910558  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -5.2140533  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -5.1658875  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -5.1651304  
Iteration 9:   log pseudolikelihood = -5.1651303  

Logistic regression                                   Number of obs =    1,491
                                                      Wald chi2(13) = 58928.92
                                                      Prob > chi2   =   0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -5.1651303                     Pseudo R2     =   0.8107

                                  (Std. err. adjusted for 42 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |   -2.12957   1.606085    -1.33   0.185     -5.27744    1.018299
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |    -.55567    .656929    -0.85   0.398    -1.843227    .7318871
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   .8445409   1.100306     0.77   0.443    -1.312018      3.0011
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -3.693786   1.103752    -3.35   0.001      -5.8571   -1.530472
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   7.785874   1.244039     6.26   0.000     5.347603    10.22414
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   .7008276   .7541821     0.93   0.353    -.7773421    2.178997
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -6.093002   1.835582    -3.32   0.001    -9.690676   -2.495328
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0626479   .0182391     3.43   0.001        .0269    .0983959
              |
          nca |
          L1. |  -.5453259   .2688467    -2.03   0.043    -1.072256   -.0183961
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   .0462304   .3788081     0.12   0.903    -.6962198    .7886806
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.461779    .407007    -3.59   0.000    -2.259498   -.6640603
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0698974   .0211327     3.31   0.001     .0284781    .1113168
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0009864   .0003195    -3.09   0.002    -.0016126   -.0003603
              |
        _cons |   6.665112   6.289764     1.06   0.289    -5.662599    18.99282
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 8 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. 
. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.conflict l.npt_rati l.
> npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 [iweight=_pscore] if l.us_ally==0 & year<=1991, clust
> er(cowcc) //Model4

note: L.majorpower omitted because of collinearity.
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -21.761468  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -12.139411  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -9.6534035  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -7.8674511  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -7.7594663  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -7.7571161  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -7.7571061  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -7.7571061  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  2,763
                                                        Wald chi2(12) = 348.90
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -7.7571061                       Pseudo R2     = 0.6435

                                 (Std. err. adjusted for 102 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |  -1.773337   .5041209    -3.52   0.000    -2.761396   -.7852785
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |  -.0242078   .2483215    -0.10   0.922     -.510909    .4624933
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   1.263135   .5977681     2.11   0.035      .091531    2.434739
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -.3265808   .5407716    -0.60   0.546    -1.386474    .7333121
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |          0  (omitted)
              |
     conflict |
          L1. |   1.277489   .6059385     2.11   0.035     .0898717    2.465107
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -.7920812   .6838483    -1.16   0.247    -2.132399    .5482369
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0173799   .0132989     1.31   0.191    -.0086854    .0434452
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   .4770354   .3990968     1.20   0.232      -.30518    1.259251
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   .2251323    .604155     0.37   0.709    -.9589897    1.409254
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.219811    .275691    -4.42   0.000    -1.760156   -.6794671
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0624727    .016022     3.90   0.000     .0310701    .0938752
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0009439   .0002543    -3.71   0.000    -.0014424   -.0004454
              |
        _cons |    .747163   1.643006     0.45   0.649    -2.473069    3.967395
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. * (b) Results of balance test *
. psmatch2 vis_us us_ally conflict gdpcap_ln industry nuke_latency majorpower demo npt_rati, outco
> me(nukepursue_JG) neighbor(1)

Probit regression                                       Number of obs =  4,545
                                                        LR chi2(8)    = 225.10
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -676.62574                             Pseudo R2     = 0.1426

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      vis_us | Coefficient  Std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     us_ally |   .4326591   .0786693     5.50   0.000     .2784701    .5868481
    conflict |   .0725419   .0821854     0.88   0.377    -.0885386    .2336224
   gdpcap_ln |   .1796823   .0575316     3.12   0.002     .0669224    .2924422
    industry |   .5405613   .0952258     5.68   0.000     .3539222    .7272005
nuke_latency |   .3108424   .1259021     2.47   0.014     .0640789     .557606
  majorpower |   .1282834   .3893991     0.33   0.742    -.6349249    .8914916
        demo |   .0115145   .0929992     0.12   0.901    -.1707606    .1937897
    npt_rati |  -.0101545   .0779197    -0.13   0.896    -.1628744    .1425654
       _cons |  -3.697559    .451897    -8.18   0.000    -4.583261   -2.811857
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Variable     Sample |    Treated     Controls   Difference         S.E.   T-stat
----------------------------+-----------------------------------------------------------
   nukepursue_JG  Unmatched | .047368421   .047301952   .000066469   .015736963     0.00
                        ATT | .047368421   .042105263   .005263158   .022994758     0.23
----------------------------+-----------------------------------------------------------
Note: S.E. does not take into account that the propensity score is estimated.

           | psmatch2:
 psmatch2: |   Common
 Treatment |  support
assignment | On suppor |     Total
-----------+-----------+----------
 Untreated |     4,355 |     4,355 
   Treated |       190 |       190 
-----------+-----------+----------
     Total |     4,545 |     4,545 

. pstest us_ally conflict gdpcap_ln industry nuke_latency majorpower demo npt_rati, outcome(nukepu
> rsue_JG) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        |       Mean               |     t-test    |  V(T)/
Variable                | Treated Control    %bias |    t    p>|t| |  V(C)
------------------------+--------------------------+---------------+----------
us_ally                 | .66316       .7     -7.8 |  -0.77  0.442 |     .
conflict                | .27895   .31579     -8.1 |  -0.78  0.433 |     .
gdpcap_ln               | 8.8301   8.8263      0.4 |   0.04  0.965 |  1.05
industry                | .63684   .61579      4.7 |   0.42  0.672 |     .
nuke_latency            | .18947   .16842      6.8 |   0.53  0.594 |     .
majorpower              | .01579   .01579      0.0 |   0.00  1.000 |     .
demo                    | .57368   .54737      5.6 |   0.52  0.606 |     .
npt_rati                | .52632   .48947      7.4 |   0.72  0.474 |     .
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* if variance ratio outside [0.75; 1.33]

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Ps R2   LR chi2   p>chi2   MeanBias   MedBias      B       R     %Var 
----------------------------------------------------------------------
0.005      2.69    0.952      5.1       6.2      16.8    0.98       0
----------------------------------------------------------------------
* if B>25%, R outside [0.5; 2]

. 
. ** Appendix 7: Determinants of leader visit using the interaction term of US Ally and Nuclear pu
> rsuit ongoing variable **
. logit vis_us l.us_ally##l.nukepursue_ongoing l.majorpower l.conflict l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.nu
> ke_latency l.nca l.senstech l.demo l.npt_eff l.npt_rati if year<=1991, cluster(cowcc) 

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -752.94975  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -661.04951  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -639.3613  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -638.78214  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -638.78055  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -638.78055  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  4,284
                                                        Wald chi2(13) = 205.71
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -638.78055                       Pseudo R2     = 0.1516

                                                  (Std. err. adjusted for 132 clusters in cowcc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                               |               Robust
                        vis_us | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
-------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                     L.us_ally |
                            1  |    .917814    .281119     3.26   0.001     .3668309    1.468797
                               |
          L.nukepursue_ongoing |
                            1  |   -1.28724   .6447901    -2.00   0.046    -2.551005   -.0234743
                               |
L.us_ally#L.nukepursue_ongoing |
                          1 1  |    1.12414   .7675972     1.46   0.143    -.3803224    2.628603
                               |
                    majorpower |
                           L1. |    .252722   .3984517     0.63   0.526    -.5282289    1.033673
                               |
                      conflict |
                           L1. |   .0404103   .2560752     0.16   0.875    -.4614878    .5423084
                               |
                     gdpcap_ln |
                           L1. |   .3612067   .1598484     2.26   0.024     .0479096    .6745038
                               |
                      industry |
                           L1. |   1.279273   .2670106     4.79   0.000     .7559415    1.802604
                               |
                  nuke_latency |
                           L1. |   .6489814   .3064795     2.12   0.034     .0482927     1.24967
                               |
                           nca |
                           L1. |    .138017   .2135039     0.65   0.518     -.280443    .5564769
                               |
                      senstech |
                           L1. |   .4228856   .5076955     0.83   0.405    -.5721792     1.41795
                               |
                          demo |
                           L1. |  -.1626151   .3797321    -0.43   0.668    -.9068763    .5816461
                               |
                       npt_eff |
                           L1. |    -.00548   .0044945    -1.22   0.223    -.0142892    .0033291
                               |
                      npt_rati |
                           L1. |   .1345699    .278278     0.48   0.629    -.4108449    .6799847
                               |
                         _cons |  -6.998442    1.25926    -5.56   0.000    -9.466546   -4.530338
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ** Appendix 8: The effect of superpower leader visit on nuclear pursuit onset **
. reg nukepursue_onset l.vis_us l.vis_rus l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.
> conflict l.npt_rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.OS1 l.OS2 l.OS3 if year<=1991, cluster(cowcc)

Linear regression                               Number of obs     =      4,263
                                                F(15, 130)        =       6.48
                                                Prob > F          =     0.0000
                                                R-squared         =     0.0158
                                                Root MSE          =     .06264

                                (Std. err. adjusted for 131 clusters in cowcc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
nukepursue~t | Coefficient  std. err.      t    P>|t|     [95% conf. interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      vis_us |
         L1. |  -.0066915   .0021264    -3.15   0.002    -.0108985   -.0024846
             |
     vis_rus |
         L1. |  -.0065775   .0024779    -2.65   0.009    -.0114798   -.0016752
             |
    nukeally |
         L1. |   .0012167   .0022879     0.53   0.596    -.0033096    .0057431
             |
   gdpcap_ln |
         L1. |  -.0003989   .0017027    -0.23   0.815    -.0037674    .0029696
             |
    industry |
         L1. |   .0131715   .0047853     2.75   0.007     .0037045    .0226386
             |
        demo |
         L1. |  -.0045807   .0024617    -1.86   0.065    -.0094509    .0002895
             |
  majorpower |
         L1. |   .0867339   .0154433     5.62   0.000     .0561811    .1172867
             |
    conflict |
         L1. |   .0086181   .0028574     3.02   0.003      .002965    .0142712
             |
    npt_rati |
         L1. |  -.0026868   .0033011    -0.81   0.417    -.0092175     .003844
             |
     npt_eff |
         L1. |   .0000226   .0000382     0.59   0.554    -.0000529    .0000982
             |
         nca |
         L1. |  -.0023815   .0042249    -0.56   0.574    -.0107399    .0059769
             |
    senstech |
         L1. |  -.0114176   .0036567    -3.12   0.002     -.018652   -.0041833
             |
         OS1 |
         L1. |  -.0000747   .0005789    -0.13   0.898      -.00122    .0010707
             |
         OS2 |
         L1. |   .0000201   .0000312     0.64   0.521    -.0000417    .0000819
             |
         OS3 |
         L1. |  -4.71e-07   4.51e-07    -1.05   0.298    -1.36e-06    4.20e-07
             |
       _cons |   .0021882   .0119023     0.18   0.854     -.021359    .0257355
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ** Appendix 9: The effect of superpower leader visit on nuclear pursuit (using rivalry and US nu
> clear deployment variable) **
. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.vis_rus l.usnuc l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorp
> ower l.rivalry l.npt_rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if year<=1991, cluster(co
> wcc) //Model1

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -828.16962  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -457.53294  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -335.84548  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -297.59732  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -292.99127  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =   -292.596  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -292.5929  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood =  -292.5929  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  4,206
                                                        Wald chi2(16) = 564.74
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -292.5929                        Pseudo R2     = 0.6467

                                 (Std. err. adjusted for 131 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |  -1.345309   .5958167    -2.26   0.024    -2.513089   -.1775302
              |
      vis_rus |
          L1. |  -.3631372   .4844824    -0.75   0.454    -1.312705    .5864308
              |
        usnuc |
          L1. |   .4710682   .8160331     0.58   0.564    -1.128327    2.070464
              |
     nukeally |
          L1. |   .0076634   .3961345     0.02   0.985    -.7687459    .7840727
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |   .2854529   .3577955     0.80   0.425    -.4158133    .9867192
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   1.299829   .6199217     2.10   0.036     .0848051    2.514853
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -.4579057   .4810682    -0.95   0.341    -1.400782    .4849707
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   3.251083   .6923547     4.70   0.000     1.894092    4.608073
              |
      rivalry |
          L1. |   1.046761   .3427916     3.05   0.002     .3749022    1.718621
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -.7831843   .4719573    -1.66   0.097    -1.708204     .141835
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0175999   .0091653     1.92   0.055    -.0003639    .0355636
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   .6683038    .331761     2.01   0.044     .0180642    1.318544
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |    1.44893   .6003194     2.41   0.016     .2723257    2.625534
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.369901   .1933284    -7.09   0.000    -1.748817   -.9909838
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0733631   .0125253     5.86   0.000      .048814    .0979122
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0011479   .0002276    -5.04   0.000     -.001594   -.0007018
              |
        _cons |  -1.897089   2.428029    -0.78   0.435    -6.655939    2.861761
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 1 failure and 0 successes completely determined.

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.vis_rus l.usnuc l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorp
> ower l.rivalry l.npt_rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if l.rivalry==1 & year<=1
> 991, cluster(cowcc) //Model2 

note: L.usnuc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      L.usnuc omitted and 90 obs not used.

note: L.senstech != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      L.senstech omitted and 29 obs not used.

note: L.rivalry omitted because of collinearity.
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -285.44356  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -245.94349  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -217.34651  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -177.04154  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =  -177.0412  (backed up)
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -177.04104  (backed up)
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -177.04095  (backed up)
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -176.42638  (backed up)
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -145.66747  (backed up)
Iteration 9:   log pseudolikelihood = -121.52807  
Iteration 10:  log pseudolikelihood = -106.85803  (backed up)
Iteration 11:  log pseudolikelihood = -98.776686  
Iteration 12:  log pseudolikelihood = -98.366879  
Iteration 13:  log pseudolikelihood = -98.363424  
Iteration 14:  log pseudolikelihood = -98.363422  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  1,234
                                                        Wald chi2(13) = 426.61
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -98.363422                       Pseudo R2     = 0.6554

                                  (Std. err. adjusted for 59 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |   .1297178   .9695881     0.13   0.894     -1.77064    2.030076
              |
      vis_rus |
          L1. |  -1.997157   .5155186    -3.87   0.000    -3.007555   -.9867589
              |
        usnuc |
          L1. |          0  (omitted)
              |
     nukeally |
          L1. |  -1.325891   .5983822    -2.22   0.027    -2.498699   -.1530835
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |   2.457606   .7307543     3.36   0.001     1.025354    3.889858
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   .5621411   .7060438     0.80   0.426    -.8216793    1.945962
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -1.300585   .8323157    -1.56   0.118    -2.931893    .3307243
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   3.485659   1.048637     3.32   0.001     1.430369    5.540949
              |
      rivalry |
          L1. |          0  (omitted)
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -.2906729   .6718487    -0.43   0.665    -1.607472    1.026126
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |  -.0037668   .0112803    -0.33   0.738    -.0258759    .0183422
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   1.230018   .5838863     2.11   0.035     .0856218    2.374414
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |          0  (omitted)
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.188886   .1962725    -6.06   0.000    -1.573573   -.8041994
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0633099   .0131287     4.82   0.000     .0375781    .0890418
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0009731     .00024    -4.05   0.000    -.0014436   -.0005026
              |
        _cons |  -17.98135   5.520904    -3.26   0.001    -28.80213   -7.160581
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.vis_rus l.usnuc l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorp
> ower l.rivalry l.npt_rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 i.year if year<=1991, clu
> ster(cowcc) //Model3

note: 1991.year omitted because of collinearity.
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -828.16962  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -461.24117  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -317.77058  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -270.14952  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood =  -265.1848  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -264.45916  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -264.44333  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -264.44332  

Logistic regression                                   Number of obs =    4,206
                                                      Wald chi2(55) = 13856.93
                                                      Prob > chi2   =   0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -264.44332                     Pseudo R2     =   0.6807

                                 (Std. err. adjusted for 131 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |   -1.10346   .4538054    -2.43   0.015    -1.992902   -.2140176
              |
      vis_rus |
          L1. |  -.6793488   .4864559    -1.40   0.163    -1.632785    .2740873
              |
        usnuc |
          L1. |   .3308322   .8258329     0.40   0.689    -1.287771    1.949435
              |
     nukeally |
          L1. |  -.0455136   .4768257    -0.10   0.924    -.9800747    .8890475
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |    .188312   .3775111     0.50   0.618    -.5515962    .9282202
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   1.304579   .6938016     1.88   0.060    -.0552468    2.664406
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -.6640675   .4749123    -1.40   0.162    -1.594878    .2667435
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |    3.11827   1.094897     2.85   0.004     .9723121    5.264228
              |
      rivalry |
          L1. |   1.174662   .3899625     3.01   0.003     .4103498    1.938975
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -.8699902   .5000282    -1.74   0.082    -1.850028    .1100472
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |  -.0030705   .0220609    -0.14   0.889     -.046309     .040168
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   .9585551   .3619267     2.65   0.008     .2491918    1.667918
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   1.599196   .6245784     2.56   0.010     .3750449    2.823347
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.601091   .2206863    -7.26   0.000    -2.033629   -1.168554
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0856504   .0134918     6.35   0.000      .059207    .1120937
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0013254   .0002229    -5.95   0.000    -.0017623   -.0008885
              |
         year |
        1952  |   -.245249   .3950634    -0.62   0.535    -1.019559    .5290609
        1953  |    1.27134   1.152689     1.10   0.270     -.987889    3.530568
        1954  |     2.5584   1.417464     1.80   0.071    -.2197776    5.336578
        1955  |   3.181674   1.374168     2.32   0.021     .4883554    5.874993
        1956  |   1.266679   1.575003     0.80   0.421     -1.82027    4.353628
        1957  |   .1100662   1.252336     0.09   0.930    -2.344468      2.5646
        1958  |   .5366761   1.264888     0.42   0.671    -1.942458     3.01581
        1959  |   1.273374   1.201322     1.06   0.289    -1.081173    3.627921
        1960  |   1.785799   1.101956     1.62   0.105    -.3739958    3.945594
        1961  |   .0681081   1.116394     0.06   0.951    -2.119984      2.2562
        1962  |  -.3752781   .9601706    -0.39   0.696    -2.257178    1.506622
        1963  |  -.6168685   1.093794    -0.56   0.573    -2.760666    1.526929
        1964  |  -.0951167   1.249117    -0.08   0.939    -2.543342    2.353109
        1965  |  -.0895353   1.321262    -0.07   0.946    -2.679161     2.50009
        1966  |  -1.522907   1.068106    -1.43   0.154    -3.616355    .5705415
        1967  |  -.1543295   1.574796    -0.10   0.922    -3.240873    2.932214
        1968  |   .8435768   1.598598     0.53   0.598    -2.289617     3.97677
        1969  |   .4921901   1.279172     0.38   0.700    -2.014941    2.999321
        1970  |    .881873   2.120172     0.42   0.677    -3.273587    5.037333
        1971  |   2.358059   1.300554     1.81   0.070    -.1909798    4.907097
        1972  |   2.479149   1.129239     2.20   0.028     .2658813    4.692417
        1973  |   2.205484    1.06167     2.08   0.038     .1246497    4.286319
        1974  |    2.41805   .9438212     2.56   0.010     .5681941    4.267905
        1975  |   1.838488   .8134167     2.26   0.024     .2442208    3.432756
        1976  |   .7271646   .9391576     0.77   0.439     -1.11355     2.56788
        1977  |   .0647442   .8750819     0.07   0.941    -1.650385    1.779873
        1978  |   1.660402   1.309138     1.27   0.205    -.9054612    4.226266
        1979  |   1.671246    1.44876     1.15   0.249    -1.168271    4.510763
        1980  |   .9102166   1.101445     0.83   0.409    -1.248576    3.069009
        1981  |   2.113584   1.323974     1.60   0.110    -.4813563    4.708525
        1982  |   3.324492   1.177795     2.82   0.005     1.016055    5.632928
        1983  |   3.147085   1.042212     3.02   0.003     1.104387    5.189782
        1984  |   3.101693   1.000292     3.10   0.002     1.141157    5.062229
        1985  |   2.876983   .9777878     2.94   0.003     .9605545    4.793412
        1986  |   2.560518   1.055397     2.43   0.015     .4919776    4.629059
        1987  |   2.723877   1.083145     2.51   0.012     .6009512    4.846803
        1988  |    1.74241   1.331952     1.31   0.191    -.8681679    4.352989
        1989  |   1.661747   1.234661     1.35   0.178    -.7581429    4.081638
        1990  |   1.270687    .871142     1.46   0.145    -.4367201    2.978094
        1991  |          0  (omitted)
              |
        _cons |  -1.102126   2.588573    -0.43   0.670    -6.175636    3.971384
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 44 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.usnuc l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.rivalry l.npt_
> rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if l.us_ally==1 & year<=1991, cluster(cowcc) /
> /Model4

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -215.03576  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -143.15135  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -111.23033  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -72.809901  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -57.185883  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -54.117362  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -53.711646  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -53.705743  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -53.705742  

Logistic regression                                    Number of obs =   1,476
                                                       Wald chi2(14) = 7459.70
                                                       Prob > chi2   =  0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -53.705742                      Pseudo R2     =  0.7502

                                  (Std. err. adjusted for 42 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |  -2.578599   1.848412    -1.40   0.163    -6.201419    1.044221
              |
        usnuc |
          L1. |   2.328394    1.00905     2.31   0.021     .3506916    4.306097
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |  -.7631784   .9335219    -0.82   0.414    -2.592848    1.066491
              |
     industry |
          L1. |   .4833688   1.621583     0.30   0.766    -2.694876    3.661613
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -3.374302   .8434885    -4.00   0.000    -5.027509   -1.721095
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |   8.305556   1.457214     5.70   0.000     5.449468    11.16164
              |
      rivalry |
          L1. |  -.4458041     .57958    -0.77   0.442     -1.58176    .6901518
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -6.152879   1.773221    -3.47   0.001    -9.628329    -2.67743
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0520163   .0276689     1.88   0.060    -.0022137    .1062463
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   .0743087   .5009044     0.15   0.882     -.907446    1.056063
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |   .4186744   .7223521     0.58   0.562    -.9971097    1.834459
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.717808   .4145074    -4.14   0.000    -2.530227   -.9053882
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |   .0876613    .022677     3.87   0.000     .0432152    .1321073
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |   -.001311   .0003395    -3.86   0.000    -.0019763   -.0006456
              |
        _cons |   9.262642   7.723228     1.20   0.230    -5.874606    24.39989
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 62 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.usnuc l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.rivalry l.npt_
> rati l.npt_eff l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if l.us_ally==0 & year<=1991, cluster(cowcc) /
> /Model5

note: L.usnuc != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      L.usnuc omitted and 19 obs not used.

note: L.majorpower omitted because of collinearity.
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -605.19422  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -602.99173  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -295.41844  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -213.37555  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -207.48218  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -207.24385  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -207.24264  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -207.24264  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  2,711
                                                        Wald chi2(12) = 251.27
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -207.24264                       Pseudo R2     = 0.6576

                                 (Std. err. adjusted for 102 clusters in cowcc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       vis_us |
          L1. |  -1.393832   .4117874    -3.38   0.001     -2.20092   -.5867434
              |
        usnuc |
          L1. |          0  (omitted)
              |
    gdpcap_ln |
          L1. |   .3438744   .3566956     0.96   0.335    -.3552362    1.042985
              |
     industry |
          L1. |    1.70357   .7610086     2.24   0.025     .2120208     3.19512
              |
         demo |
          L1. |  -.0399038   .5511211    -0.07   0.942    -1.120081    1.040274
              |
   majorpower |
          L1. |          0  (omitted)
              |
      rivalry |
          L1. |   1.512257   .4381694     3.45   0.001     .6534603    2.371053
              |
     npt_rati |
          L1. |  -.7520747   .5825393    -1.29   0.197    -1.893831    .3896814
              |
      npt_eff |
          L1. |   .0189769   .0103829     1.83   0.068    -.0013732     .039327
              |
          nca |
          L1. |   1.026964     .41208     2.49   0.013     .2193016    1.834625
              |
     senstech |
          L1. |    1.64137   .6703442     2.45   0.014     .3275191     2.95522
              |
          JG1 |
          L1. |  -1.317236   .2254429    -5.84   0.000    -1.759096   -.8753761
              |
          JG2 |
          L1. |    .070025   .0143494     4.88   0.000     .0419006    .0981494
              |
          JG3 |
          L1. |  -.0010877   .0002538    -4.29   0.000    -.0015852   -.0005902
              |
        _cons |  -3.027741   2.310192    -1.31   0.190    -7.555633    1.500151
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ** Appendix 10: The effect of superpower leader visit on nuclear pursuit (including post cold wa
> r) **
. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.vis_rus l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.c
> onflict l.npt_rati_expand l.npt_eff_expand l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3, cluster(cowcc) //
> Model1

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1016.7298  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -600.42108  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -410.12715  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -357.74488  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -341.32567  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -334.39245  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -333.74807  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -333.74229  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -333.74229  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  5,628
                                                        Wald chi2(15) = 528.44
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -333.74229                       Pseudo R2     = 0.6717

                                   (Std. err. adjusted for 152 clusters in cowcc)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                |               Robust
  nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         vis_us |
            L1. |  -1.045891   .3790344    -2.76   0.006    -1.788784   -.3029968
                |
        vis_rus |
            L1. |  -.6386219   .4541616    -1.41   0.160    -1.528762    .2515185
                |
       nukeally |
            L1. |  -.2264843   .3902796    -0.58   0.562    -.9914183    .5384498
                |
      gdpcap_ln |
            L1. |   .4387523   .2977409     1.47   0.141    -.1448092    1.022314
                |
       industry |
            L1. |   1.028873   .5659906     1.82   0.069    -.0804485    2.138194
                |
           demo |
            L1. |   -.941162   .4940653    -1.90   0.057    -1.909512    .0271882
                |
     majorpower |
            L1. |   3.832527   .8073964     4.75   0.000      2.25006    5.414995
                |
       conflict |
            L1. |   1.916176   .4011509     4.78   0.000     1.129934    2.702417
                |
npt_rati_expand |
            L1. |  -.0250936   .4787953    -0.05   0.958    -.9635151    .9133278
                |
 npt_eff_expand |
            L1. |   .0036401    .005776     0.63   0.529    -.0076807    .0149609
                |
            nca |
            L1. |    .697486   .2769285     2.52   0.012     .1547162    1.240256
                |
       senstech |
            L1. |   .9184406   .4777626     1.92   0.055     -.017957    1.854838
                |
            JG1 |
            L1. |  -1.590518   .2160541    -7.36   0.000    -2.013976   -1.167059
                |
            JG2 |
            L1. |   .0883325   .0140031     6.31   0.000      .060887    .1157781
                |
            JG3 |
            L1. |  -.0014054    .000253    -5.55   0.000    -.0019013   -.0009095
                |
          _cons |  -2.815861   1.864629    -1.51   0.131    -6.470466    .8387437
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 567 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.vis_rus l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.c
> onflict l.npt_rati_expand l.npt_eff_expand l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if l.conflict==1, 
> cluster(cowcc) //Model2 

note: L.conflict omitted because of collinearity.
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -507.0076  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -323.98963  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -217.71304  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -183.69324  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -175.05357  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood =  -170.0151  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -169.68419  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -169.67913  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -169.67913  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  1,580
                                                        Wald chi2(14) = 582.28
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -169.67913                       Pseudo R2     = 0.6653

                                    (Std. err. adjusted for 48 clusters in cowcc)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                |               Robust
  nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         vis_us |
            L1. |  -1.053359   .3862032    -2.73   0.006    -1.810303   -.2964144
                |
        vis_rus |
            L1. |   1.195164   .4335611     2.76   0.006     .3453996    2.044928
                |
       nukeally |
            L1. |   .2293531    .571572     0.40   0.688    -.8909075    1.349614
                |
      gdpcap_ln |
            L1. |  -.1003917   .3285947    -0.31   0.760    -.7444254     .543642
                |
       industry |
            L1. |   1.025691   .6145318     1.67   0.095    -.1787693    2.230151
                |
           demo |
            L1. |  -.5379602   .7228294    -0.74   0.457     -1.95468    .8787594
                |
     majorpower |
            L1. |   3.104824   .9229888     3.36   0.001     1.295799    4.913849
                |
       conflict |
            L1. |          0  (omitted)
                |
npt_rati_expand |
            L1. |  -.7028638   .6486938    -1.08   0.279     -1.97428    .5685526
                |
 npt_eff_expand |
            L1. |   .0127915   .0084383     1.52   0.130    -.0037473    .0293302
                |
            nca |
            L1. |   .4646626   .3815797     1.22   0.223    -.2832199    1.212545
                |
       senstech |
            L1. |   1.151292   .6295323     1.83   0.067    -.0825689    2.385152
                |
            JG1 |
            L1. |  -1.338137   .2145948    -6.24   0.000    -1.758735   -.9175387
                |
            JG2 |
            L1. |   .0741884   .0150148     4.94   0.000       .04476    .1036168
                |
            JG3 |
            L1. |  -.0011977   .0002801    -4.28   0.000    -.0017466   -.0006488
                |
          _cons |   2.518743    2.10451     1.20   0.231    -1.606021    6.643507
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 138 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.vis_rus l.nukeally l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.c
> onflict l.npt_rati_expand l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 i.year, cluster(cowcc) //Model3

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1016.7298  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -593.16553  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -381.85342  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -319.89199  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -302.66802  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -295.49956  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -294.74491  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -294.73326  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -294.73325  

Logistic regression                                   Number of obs =    5,628
                                                      Wald chi2(64) = 17523.41
                                                      Prob > chi2   =   0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -294.73325                     Pseudo R2     =   0.7101

                                   (Std. err. adjusted for 152 clusters in cowcc)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                |               Robust
  nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         vis_us |
            L1. |  -1.094637   .4296764    -2.55   0.011    -1.936787   -.2524862
                |
        vis_rus |
            L1. |  -.7585582   .3548349    -2.14   0.033    -1.454022   -.0630946
                |
       nukeally |
            L1. |   -.320407   .4590217    -0.70   0.485    -1.220073     .579259
                |
      gdpcap_ln |
            L1. |   .4104576   .3079034     1.33   0.183     -.193022    1.013937
                |
       industry |
            L1. |   .9748978   .6711412     1.45   0.146    -.3405148     2.29031
                |
           demo |
            L1. |   -1.01504   .5116549    -1.98   0.047    -2.017865   -.0122151
                |
     majorpower |
            L1. |   4.212552   1.424299     2.96   0.003     1.420977    7.004128
                |
       conflict |
            L1. |   1.715405   .4826094     3.55   0.000     .7695085    2.661302
                |
npt_rati_expand |
            L1. |  -.4211435   .5419905    -0.78   0.437    -1.483425    .6411384
                |
            nca |
            L1. |   .9150251   .3249896     2.82   0.005     .2780571    1.551993
                |
       senstech |
            L1. |   .9230749    .612286     1.51   0.132    -.2769836    2.123133
                |
            JG1 |
            L1. |  -1.740638   .2224831    -7.82   0.000    -2.176697   -1.304579
                |
            JG2 |
            L1. |   .0946901   .0136859     6.92   0.000     .0678661     .121514
                |
            JG3 |
            L1. |  -.0014783   .0002288    -6.46   0.000    -.0019268   -.0010299
                |
           year |
          1952  |   -.013471   .4878279    -0.03   0.978    -.9695961    .9426541
          1953  |   1.490195   1.367618     1.09   0.276    -1.190286    4.170676
          1954  |   2.900623   1.625722     1.78   0.074    -.2857346     6.08698
          1955  |   2.321847   1.849415     1.26   0.209     -1.30294    5.946633
          1956  |    1.34736   1.672343     0.81   0.420    -1.930371    4.625091
          1957  |   .3285615   1.451509     0.23   0.821    -2.516343    3.173466
          1958  |   1.046645   1.504018     0.70   0.486    -1.901175    3.994466
          1959  |   1.847827   1.455074     1.27   0.204    -1.004065    4.699718
          1960  |   2.147435   1.445202     1.49   0.137    -.6851084    4.979978
          1961  |   .0217842   1.395456     0.02   0.988     -2.71326    2.756829
          1962  |   .6489553   1.326649     0.49   0.625    -1.951229     3.24914
          1963  |   .0821322   1.476384     0.06   0.956    -2.811527    2.975791
          1964  |   .7918514   1.573819     0.50   0.615    -2.292777     3.87648
          1965  |   1.020254   1.556963     0.66   0.512    -2.031337    4.071846
          1966  |  -1.229495   1.496801    -0.82   0.411    -4.163171    1.704181
          1967  |   .2329519   1.882173     0.12   0.901    -3.456039    3.921943
          1968  |   1.372128   1.890616     0.73   0.468    -2.333412    5.077667
          1969  |    .741483   1.479836     0.50   0.616    -2.158943    3.641909
          1970  |   1.085031   2.762152     0.39   0.694    -4.328687    6.498749
          1971  |   2.533893   2.298046     1.10   0.270    -1.970195     7.03798
          1972  |    2.17374   2.034831     1.07   0.285    -1.814455    6.161935
          1973  |   2.482344   1.831935     1.36   0.175    -1.108183     6.07287
          1974  |   2.483603   1.734194     1.43   0.152    -.9153548     5.88256
          1975  |   1.861019   1.665445     1.12   0.264    -1.403193     5.12523
          1976  |   .7509754   1.657902     0.45   0.651    -2.498452    4.000403
          1977  |  -.0379554    1.62513    -0.02   0.981    -3.223151     3.14724
          1978  |   1.671829   1.737084     0.96   0.336    -1.732792    5.076451
          1979  |   1.534142   1.895943     0.81   0.418    -2.181838    5.250122
          1980  |   .9220037   1.885586     0.49   0.625    -2.773676    4.617684
          1981  |   1.919505   1.773589     1.08   0.279    -1.556666    5.395675
          1982  |   3.145798   1.716983     1.83   0.067     -.219427    6.511024
          1983  |   2.963919   1.688555     1.76   0.079    -.3455866    6.273426
          1984  |   2.919423    1.61944     1.80   0.071      -.25462    6.093466
          1985  |   2.744418   1.639597     1.67   0.094    -.4691322    5.957968
          1986  |   2.487519   1.705849     1.46   0.145    -.8558846    5.830922
          1987  |   2.619695   1.717793     1.53   0.127    -.7471182    5.986507
          1988  |    1.94739   1.891442     1.03   0.303    -1.759769    5.654548
          1989  |   1.870315   1.848039     1.01   0.312    -1.751775    5.492405
          1990  |   1.482001   1.910185     0.78   0.438    -2.261894    5.225895
          1991  |   .1999613   1.930402     0.10   0.917    -3.583556    3.983479
          1992  |  -.9513624   1.846254    -0.52   0.606    -4.569954    2.667229
          1993  |  -.1351829   1.743101    -0.08   0.938    -3.551597    3.281232
          1994  |  -.0335045   1.792886    -0.02   0.985    -3.547496    3.480487
          1995  |   .7359162   1.754856     0.42   0.675    -2.703538     4.17537
          1996  |   1.409613   1.727321     0.82   0.414    -1.975875      4.7951
          1997  |   1.885435   1.739387     1.08   0.278      -1.5237     5.29457
          1998  |   1.605928   1.748752     0.92   0.358    -1.821562    5.033419
          1999  |   1.869251   1.811624     1.03   0.302    -1.681468    5.419969
          2000  |   2.127705   1.854553     1.15   0.251    -1.507152    5.762563
          2001  |   2.254784   1.881859     1.20   0.231    -1.433593     5.94316
                |
          _cons |   -3.09877   2.108267    -1.47   0.142    -7.230898    1.033357
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 581 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.conflict l.npt_rati_ex
> pand l.npt_eff_expand l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if l.us_ally==1, cluster(cowcc) //Model
> 4 

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -226.61791  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -189.61509  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -169.98134  (backed up)
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -110.41824  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -79.736765  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -68.201226  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = -61.565735  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -58.585841  
Iteration 8:   log pseudolikelihood = -58.202958  
Iteration 9:   log pseudolikelihood = -58.197717  
Iteration 10:  log pseudolikelihood = -58.197712  

Logistic regression                                    Number of obs =   1,863
                                                       Wald chi2(13) = 1176.73
                                                       Prob > chi2   =  0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -58.197712                      Pseudo R2     =  0.7432

                                    (Std. err. adjusted for 46 clusters in cowcc)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                |               Robust
  nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         vis_us |
            L1. |  -1.266516   .8026506    -1.58   0.115    -2.839683    .3066499
                |
      gdpcap_ln |
            L1. |  -1.075014   .9066667    -1.19   0.236    -2.852048    .7020202
                |
       industry |
            L1. |   .8978014    1.66217     0.54   0.589    -2.359993    4.155595
                |
           demo |
            L1. |  -3.032804   .8021805    -3.78   0.000    -4.605049   -1.460559
                |
     majorpower |
            L1. |   6.483801   1.253035     5.17   0.000     4.027898    8.939704
                |
       conflict |
            L1. |   2.249974   .7519946     2.99   0.003     .7760921    3.723857
                |
npt_rati_expand |
            L1. |  -5.281216   1.499801    -3.52   0.000    -8.220772   -2.341659
                |
 npt_eff_expand |
            L1. |   .0456184   .0231217     1.97   0.048     .0003008    .0909361
                |
            nca |
            L1. |  -.3639613   .2304776    -1.58   0.114    -.8156892    .0877665
                |
       senstech |
            L1. |  -.3679891   .6223757    -0.59   0.554    -1.587823    .8518449
                |
            JG1 |
            L1. |  -1.914779   .3454493    -5.54   0.000    -2.591847   -1.237711
                |
            JG2 |
            L1. |   .1043719   .0195313     5.34   0.000     .0660911    .1426526
                |
            JG3 |
            L1. |  -.0016462   .0003469    -4.75   0.000     -.002326   -.0009664
                |
          _cons |   11.16831   8.166064     1.37   0.171     -4.83688     27.1735
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 441 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. logit nukepursue_JG l.vis_us l.gdpcap_ln l.industry l.demo l.majorpower l.conflict l.npt_rati_ex
> pand l.npt_eff_expand l.nca l.senstech l.JG1 l.JG2 l.JG3 if l.us_ally==0, cluster(cowcc) //Model
> 5

note: L.majorpower != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      L.majorpower omitted and 10 obs not used.

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -778.20141  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -420.62087  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -283.64086  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -257.47889  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -249.28213  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -247.90442  
Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood =  -247.8728  
Iteration 7:   log pseudolikelihood = -247.87279  

Logistic regression                                     Number of obs =  3,755
                                                        Wald chi2(12) = 320.50
                                                        Prob > chi2   = 0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -247.87279                       Pseudo R2     = 0.6815

                                   (Std. err. adjusted for 123 clusters in cowcc)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                |               Robust
  nukepursue_JG | Coefficient  std. err.      z    P>|z|     [95% conf. interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         vis_us |
            L1. |   -1.54835   .5209234    -2.97   0.003    -2.569341    -.527359
                |
      gdpcap_ln |
            L1. |   .5382975   .3188053     1.69   0.091    -.0865495    1.163145
                |
       industry |
            L1. |    .805393    .630354     1.28   0.201    -.4300781    2.040864
                |
           demo |
            L1. |  -.7202925    .554285    -1.30   0.194    -1.806671    .3660862
                |
     majorpower |
            L1. |          0  (omitted)
                |
       conflict |
            L1. |   2.268428   .4897022     4.63   0.000     1.308629    3.228227
                |
npt_rati_expand |
            L1. |   .5459707   .5237609     1.04   0.297    -.4805817    1.572523
                |
 npt_eff_expand |
            L1. |   .0020725   .0065573     0.32   0.752    -.0107796    .0149247
                |
            nca |
            L1. |    .887329   .3447469     2.57   0.010     .2116374    1.563021
                |
       senstech |
            L1. |   .9570373   .4627189     2.07   0.039     .0501249     1.86395
                |
            JG1 |
            L1. |   -1.55291   .2655811    -5.85   0.000     -2.07344   -1.032381
                |
            JG2 |
            L1. |   .0838396   .0171184     4.90   0.000     .0502882     .117391
                |
            JG3 |
            L1. |  -.0013185   .0003121    -4.22   0.000    -.0019301   -.0007068
                |
          _cons |  -3.954859   1.970895    -2.01   0.045    -7.817743   -.0919745
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: 208 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. 
end of do-file

. log close
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  C:\Users\dudtk\Desktop\research and articles\submit\leader visit and nuclear pursuit\
> data\Leader visits and nuclear pursuit_log.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:   2 Jun 2025, 22:26:45
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